After Australia mauled England in the 1st Ashes
Test, here are three reasons why England can win the series, and three reasons
why they can’t:-
The last time England looked in such a bad state, and in
fact the last time England lost a Test match, was the 1st Test in
India in 2012. England were thumped by nine wickets, and looked like they could
neither take twenty Indian wickets, nor score enough runs to place any kind of
pressure on the Indian bowlers. The pundits were demanding multiple changes
from England, and Indian fans were talking of winning 4-0. England won the next
two Tests, and drew the last to win the series 2-1.
England lost the first Test in that series as badly as they
have lost this Test. They were able to turn the series around by acknowledging
the mistakes they made in the first Test, standing by the right players, and
making only one but the right change by including the extra spinner in place of
a seamer. They didn’t panic, analysed their errors, and then went 13 matches
unbeaten. The manner of the defeat will not cause England to panic, they’ll
analyse, and history shows that this management team will make the right
decisions to get England back into the series.
Australia’s batsmen are not suddenly world beaters
Going back to the end of the 1st day, a lot of
Australians were not particularly happy with how the series had started.
Australia closed 273-8 and ended up 295 all out, with a lot of the problems
that had dogged Australian cricket for the previous 24 months once again rising
to the surface. They weren’t scoring enough runs, and too many of the batsman
were out to shots that didn’t need to be played. Ultimately, Australia had more
than enough runs to win the match, and hundreds by David Warner and Michael
Clarke in the second innings were hugely encouraging.
Yet, over the last two years, only three Australian batsmen
average higher than 40 in Tests, and two of those are now retired – Michael Clarke,
Mike Hussey and Ricky Ponting. The averages of the current side for that period
are as follows:- Rogers 34.90, Warner 38.30, Watson 30.72, Clarke 74.39, Smith
35.80, Bailey 18.50 and Haddin 32.64. Those are hardly numbers to strike fear into
a bowling attack, as was proved in the summer. Rogers and Bailey give the
impression of hard workers who perhaps lack the ability. Warner, Watson and
Smith all give the impression that a poor shot is just around the corner.
England can take 20 wickets in every Test, and that means England have a chance
to win every Test.
Australia’s bowlers cannot keep this up
A huge amount, and deservedly so, will be made of Mitchell
Johnson’s performance in this match. Those who believe this is a stunning
return to form missed the Sri Lanka tour of Australia last winter, where for
two Tests Johnson found this kind of form, taking wickets and sending three
batsman home injured. But in this Test every Australian bowler hit their best
form and played their role perfectly. Johnson was the spearhead, Harris the
leader, Siddle hit the top of off stump as the third seamer and Lyon bowled
accurately, allowing four batsman to make mistakes against his bowling.
With Johnson, when he has this confidence, he can be nigh on
unplayable. The speed gun doesn’t do him justice, as his slingy action means he
loses less off the pitch than most. Harris was bowling nearly the same speed,
but didn’t hurry the England batsman nearly as much. But the history of Johnson
shows that this form could desert him at any moment, when he becomes a bowler
that delivers four balls to all four corners of the ground. For Harris, the
problems are completely fitness based. No amount of form or confidence will
make the cartilage in his knees grow back, and sadly for a hugely talented
bowler and by accounts a fantastic bloke, an injury is always around the
corner. Siddle and Lyon are good bowlers when they are your 3rd and
4th best, but when they are the first two options, as they were in
India, they are a lot less threatening.
And why we should be worried:-
England’s batting is in a 2 year slump
England struggled in the summer Ashes, and now in this Test
match, to score runs. England seem to either collapse, or when they did score
runs, really have to grind them out. In the summer Jonny Bairstow and Joe Root
were the objects of criticism, and now, it is Jonathan Trott. But the stats
show that it is not one player that is the problem, but all of them. England’s batting
averages for batsmen in Tests since the start of 2012 are below, and it doesn’t
paint even a picture of adequacy:-
Alistair Cook – 42.78
Kevin Pietersen – 40.25
Joe Root – 39.55
Ian Bell – 38.38
Jonathan Trott – 38.25
Matt Prior – 36.22
Andrew Strauss – 33.19
Nick Compton – 31.93
Jonny Bairstow – 30.22
Michael Carberry – 20.00
James Taylor – 16.00
Samit Patel – 15.57
Eoin Morgan – 13.66
Ravi Bopara – 11.00
That England’s results have been reasonable during this
period (Wins at home to Australia, West Indies and New Zealand, and in India; draws
in Sri Lanka and New Zealand; defeats at home to South Africa and “away” to
Pakistan) owes much to the qualities of James Anderson, Stuart Broad and Graeme
Swann, at times supported by Tim Bresnan and others Steven Finn. Other than Joe
Root, those averages are unacceptable for those players given their ability and
the stage they are at in their careers. Prior’s average is reasonable for a
keeper, but across his last eight Tests he averages just 15. But the problem is
not one player; it is a collective failing where not even one player is scoring
the runs England need.
England have mismanaged their best young players
When England first arrived in Australia, the general train
of thought was that England would continue with Joe Root opening, and bring
Gary Ballance into the middle order. However, runs in the warm-up games saw
Michael Carberry play in the 1st Test, with Root in the middle
order, and Ballance carrying the drinks. Whilst Carberry’s runs meant his
selection was deserved, the treatment of Root and the selection of a 33
year-old is emblematic of England’s overly pragmatic approach to selection.
The average age of the side for the first Test was 30.3, and
ignoring the 22 year-old Root, 31.2. Eight of the players are 31 or older, and
thus it can be argued in the majority of cases, that their best cricket is
behind them. Over the next three years the vast majority of England’s Test side
is going to get worse.
The three most talented youngsters that England have
produced recently are, in order, Steven Finn, Joe Root and Jonny Bairstow. Yet
all have been mismanaged by England, and all three have played international
cricket, yet are no further on in their development than when they arrived in
the England team.
Finn’s treatment is the most frustrating. He made his debut
on the tour of Bangladesh, and since then has been in and out of the side,
playing 23 of England’s 46 Tests in that period. England have time and time
again left Finn out of the side, as despite the fact he takes wickets, he
concedes too many runs. This is typical of England’s pragmatism, but ignores a
vital truth of Test cricket – it is harder to teach an accurate bowler to take
wickets at Test level than to teach a wicket-taker to bowl accurately. Since
his debut, only two bowlers have taken more wickets than Finn at a better
strike rate – Vernon Philander and Dale Steyn. Steyn, and more aptly, Morne
Morkel were both wicket takers who bowled inconsistently at the start of their
Test careers. South Africa, and in particular Graeme Smith, backed them and
kept picking them. They are the basis for the best bowling attack in world
cricket.
Bairstow arrived at international level with a reputation as
England’s long term replacement for Prior, but not being quite a good enough
batsman to warrant a place as a specialist. Two years later, he’s in exactly
the same position, except has had to suffer the trauma of being dropped from
the Test side twice, and rather than playing in both the ODI and T20 teams as
he would be if managed properly, it sits and watches Jos Buttler make his own
case for Test inclusion. Root is the best English produced (i.e. not KP)
batsman for a long time, who arrived as a massive talent possibly not ready to
open in Tests. A year later England still believe that is the case, yet during
that time have jumped Root around the order and never rested him in white ball
cricket despite the incredible transformation in his life over the past twelve
months. He looks mentally tired, and that was born out in the ODI series
against Australia, and possibly this Test series as well.
England can argue that their selection policy based on
experience and the retention of players has served them very well since the
appointment of Andy Flower. But that ignores an inconvenient truth for this
management team – they benefitted from Duncan Fletcher introducing these
players, and Peter Moores sticking by them, allowing them to become the players
Flower inherited. Fletcher picked Cook, Broad, Anderson and Swann at 20, Bell and
Prior at 22, Tremlett at 23 and Pietersen at 24. Andy Flower has done a huge
amount right as England coach, but talent identification has been his main/only
failing, and now it is biting back at England.
Australia have form and belief on their side
Going into this series a lot of English fans were bemused by
Australia’s confidence entering the series. But the Aussies had a lot of reason
to be confident. The tour of England helped rid Australia of a few players,
some forever and some for now, and those players left have produced great form
for their state sides. During a two day period, five of Australia top seven
made 80+ in the Sheffield Shield, and of the two that didn’t, Shane Watson was
injured and George Bailey was busy getting himself up to number 3 in the ODI
world batting rankings.
With the bowlers, Mitchell Johnson was bowling fast, Peter
Siddle was bowling well and Ryan Harris was bowling. Nathan Lyon looked solid
and Jimmy Faulkner was showing off his all-round skills in India. Most
pleasingly for Australia, should they suffer injury a number of their fringe
players have shown form as well, with runs for Ed Cowan, Phil Hughes, Chris
Hartley (the best pure keeper in Australia), Alex Doolan, Matthew Wade and
Shaun Marsh. Their quite remarkable legion of potential Test quick bowlers
continues to swell, with Chadd Sayers continuing his rise and Ben Cutting
bowling himself back into contention after a spell on the sidelines – even Xavier
Doherty is taking wickets.
The Aussies are confident, and anyone who saw the beasting
Chris Tremlett and James Anderson took, both from the bowlers and the abuse they
copped from the Aussie fielders, in particular George Bailey at short leg (for
Anderson to cry foul about that was hypocritical, as he is known about the
world as someone who particularly enjoys telling batsman what he thinks of
them.), will have seen their body language and the confidence in them. They are
not hoping to win, they are expecting to. For Anderson to cry foul about that
was hypocritical, as he is known about the world as someone who particularly
enjoys telling batsman what he thinks of them.
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