Loosehead Prop
This has looked like a two horse race for a long time before the Autumn Internationals. With respect to Marcus Horan and Alan Jacobsen, both players who are comfortably holding on to their country’s shirt, this is between Gethin Jenkins and Andrew Sheridan. Sheridan was probably shading the race before England’s disaster and his own injury, and Jenkins stepped up for Wales. Jenkins is the front runner now but nothing is settled between the two, and with both having injury problems, with the likelihood of five props being taken, Horan and Jacobsen should keep up the pressure for a tour spot.
Hooker
This looks like a tough position to predict, and a weakness for the Lions. Ireland still seem to be playing silly buggers with their hookers, with Best, Flannery and Jackman all competing to be the hooker in green at the 6N. Lee Mears seems to have seen off Dylan Hartley for the moment, but he hardly set the world alight in the autumn, and questions will remain about how he would handle the doubtless physical South African pack. Matthew Rees seemed to be unable to hit a barn door with his throwing against Australia, which doesn’t breed confidence.
This leads to the man who now may well be the Lions hooker come 2009. Ross Ford is not a great player, but he is improving quickly, and extra sessions with Shaun Fitzpatrick can only help his cause. He hits his jumpers and makes a nuisance of himself around the field, and he may be the best of an average bunch. Ford and Mears can expect to go on tour, with the third hooker being a bit of a toss-up at the moment. I’ll stick with Best as he is most likely to start for Ireland.
Tighthead Prop
With England’s insistence on keeping Matt Stevens on the bench behind the dilapidated Phil Vickery, this spot is somewhat up for grabs. Euan Murray seems to be the man pushing forward, quite literally with his strong scrummaging, which is a plus going to the land of the scrummage. Murray can expect to tour at the moment and only needs an average 6N to book his ticket.
Stevens, on the other hand, needs to get into the England side. Adam Jones is looking like a strong candidate to go on tour, and the fifth prop they take is likely to see someone along the lines of John Hayes or Phil Vickery picked ahead of him on the basis that they will be a good member of the tour party. McGeechan knows the importance of players gelling, and a popular guy like Hayes would help this process, particularly with the mid-week side. Stevens versatility is at the moment the only thing keeping him ahead at the moment, but if he spends the 6N on the bench, expect John Hayes to go to South Africa.
Second Row
If Paul O’Connell can walk in May he will tour, and if he can run in July he’ll play all Three Tests. Donnacha O’Callaghan can feel pretty sure of joining him on the tour, as can Alun Wyn-Jones. Both players would need a serious drop in form not to be on the tour. Assuming that only four locks go with extra cover being needed in the specialist positions, it looks to be a race between a collection of average locks from England and Nathan Hines. At the moment it’s a bit of a lottery but you’d have to go with Steve Borthwick by default due to experience, but it would be no surprise if he weren’t the one chosen.
Openside
There is a wealth of talent at this position, and each gives a different flavour, from the experience of Martyn Williams and David Wallace to the up and coming talent of Tom Rees and John Barclay. Michael Lipman makes for an interesting fifth but Rees seems to be Martin Johnson’s choice and that will keep him ahead in the Lions pecking order. Williams will certainly tour, and probably start the first Test, but he is not that far ahead of Wallace and Rees. Rees really needs to kick on and nail down the England shirt, and David Wallace needs to play well every game rather than just 2 in every 3. I’d give the momentary edge to Wallace, due to the amount of high pressure Heineken Cup rugby he has played, but a good 6N for Rees will see him tour.
Blindside and No. 8
The modern view is that these positions are interchangeable, and it seems to strike true with a number of players being able to play both positions. Ryan Jones is another Welshman who can keep his summer free ready for Lions duty, but after that it all gets very sticky. If Andy Powell plays the 6N like he did this autumn he will definitely tour, and deserve to. That just leaves the small matter of Ali Hogg, Jason White, Alisdair Strockosch, Simon Taylor, Alan Quinlan, Jamie Heaslip, Stephen Ferris, James Haskell, Tom Croft, Nick Easter, Jordan Crane, Lewis Moody, Dafydd Jones and Jonathan Thomas with a chance of making the tour.
Haskell you would expect to do enough to go, if he stops this frustrating petulant streak in his game. If we assume he nails his spot, expect Jason White to tour. Former Scotland captain, popular with the Scots players and popular with Sale. That makes him an ideal candidate for mid-week captain.
Scrum-Half
Mike Blair is Scotland captain for a reason – he is their best player and a good leader. Picking a Lions side now would see him amongst the first five names on the team sheet. After that, and assuming that three specialist scrum halves are taken, it gets close. Danny Care shows moments of brilliance followed by moments of madness, but if he irons those out with more international rugby he will tour as an explosive bench option. Mike Phillips would have toured a year ago, but injury has wrecked his season and will start the 6N as Wales third choice. Dwayne Peel is not the player he once was, and thus somewhat weirdly Gareth Cooper seems to be the lead Wales option. Ireland’s Thomas O’Leary and Peter Stringer have their limitations, and Eion Reddan seems to be out of favour with everyone. It is likely that the best Welsh number nine of the 6N will be the third scrum-half, and I’ll predict based on the adage that form is temporary and class is permanent. Dwayne Peel will tour.
Fly-Half
This autumn was the chance for the new fly halves of the Northern Hemisphere to bury the ghost of Wilkinson for once and forever, to show that they too could win games under pressure against the big boys. And they blew it. His limitations have been exposed, particularly his passing, but everyone is world knows it. With ten minutes to go and the scores tied, there is no one you’d want at ten rather than Jonny Wilkinson. If he’s fit, he goes to South Africa. He won’t necessary be in the side, but he scares the Southern Hemisphere sides, and he would lift the squad.
After that, expect two races for two more positions. One of the experienced heads, Steven Jones and Ronan O’Gara, and one from the youngsters: - James Hook, Danny Cipriani and Toby Flood. Phil Godman and Dan Parks can book their holidays now. Jones looks a long way ahead of O’Gara at the moment, starting ahead of Hook and in a winning side. Hook will do well with the Ospreys but needs to ultimately displace Jones to get a spot on the tour, but he is versatile. Who knows what Cipriani will have done over the next eight months, but decent form will see him ahead of a benched Hook.
Centres
Brian O’Driscoll is a great player, solid in defence and dangerous in attack. He won’t get the captaincy he wishes for, but will tour and will almost certainly start. Gavin Henson is a preening tosser, but a 6N of the rugby he is capable of will see him into the Lions side. The bench players are far harder to pick out of a crowd. Nick de Luca is superb for Edinburgh and terrible for Scotland. Riki Flutey and Jamie Noon struggle for England, Luke Fitzgerald struggles for Ireland and Shane Horgan’s career seems to have finished. The door is open for Tom Shanklin, and he should take the opportunity. The fourth centre, expect someone capable, but more so someone who will keep the peace and tour well. Mike Tindall’s England career looks finished, but a Lions tour spot is not beyond him.
Wingers
For anyone not watching rugby over the past twelve months, the flash looking, gobby looking midget on the Wales left wing has got seriously good. There would be a riot in Wales if Shane Williams didn’t start the first test, and whilst he’s not guaranteed a spot in the side, he would have to be biblically bad to not make the tour. Paul Sackey looked a safe bet before the autumn, but offered little. Mark Jones is functional, but won’t scare Bryan Habana into sleepless nights. David Strettle seems to be made out of polystyrene. Ugo Monye may never play for England again.
Of the Lamont brothers, Shaun is a better player and will compete hard for a spot, but will probably fall short. Tommy Bowe and Rob Kearney however, both have a strong chance of going. Given that Bowe can play centre as well, I would expect him to tour. If Strettle happens to be fit at the time of the tour, he should go as an amazingly exciting runner – for Paul Sackey, form is everything. Recapture the form of last year, and he’ll be in South Africa. Assuming he does, and that Bowe goes on the basis of his versatility, it leaves one spot after Williams, Strettle, Sackey and Bowe. Jones and Kearney will battle it out, and expect the young Irishman to claim a spot on the basis of a strong 6N and a strong Heineken Cup.
Full-Back
Lee Byrne and someone else – he’s playing well enough to have made it the case. Delon Armitage has grabbed his opportunity with both hands, but has only played 4 tests in a bad side and needs some more experience. Girvan Dempsey has that experience, but moves slower than an oil tanker captured by Somali pirates, and won’t tour. Geordan Murphy can’t seem to work out tackling. Chris Paterson had a chance to firmly capture the second slot, but broke his face. Between Paterson and Armitage, but Paterson’s goal kicking will see him be the fifteen for the mid-week side.
Captain
Ryan Jones won a Grand Slam. Paul O’Connell won the Heineken Cup. Tana Umaga and Kevin Meelamu robbed Brian O’Driscoll of the Lions captaincy. None of them should captain the Lions. Jones is short of the form at the moment, O’Connell struggles in big games and his temper, and O’Driscoll’s moment has passed. It’s less likely than the Lions captain being John Terry, but the tough, gutsy and intelligent play of Mike Blair should see him lead the Lions.
Final Squad
Gethin Jenkins, Andrew Sheridan, Euan Murray, Adam Jones, John Hayes, Ross Ford, Lee Mears, Rory Best, Paul O’Connell, Donnacha O’Callaghan, Alun Wyn-Jones, Steve Borthwick, Martyn Williams, David Wallace, Ryan Jones, Andy Powell, James Haskell, Jason White, Mike Blair ©, Danny Care, Dwayne Peel, Stephen Jones, Jonny Wilkinson, Danny Cipriani, Gavin Henson, Brian O’Driscoll, Tom Shanklin, Mike Tindall, Shane Williams, David Strettle, Paul Sackey, Tommy Bowe, Rob Kearney, Lee Byrne, Chris Paterson.
