The Ashes kicks off tomorrow, here’s a guide to how the
teams are shaping up:-
Australia
Batting
Michael Clarke (c), Brad Haddin (vc, wk), David Warner, Ed
Cowan, Phillip Hughes, Shane Watson, Usman Khawaja, Chris Rogers, Steve Smith
and Matthew Wade (wk)
Darren Lehmann’s first major selection as coach was to
return Shane Watson to his opening role, and confirm that he would open with
Watson and Chris Rogers, a 35 year-old with only one cap but significant
experience of English conditions. Moving Watson up to open is a reasonable
move, as with the obvious exception of Michael Clarke, Watson is the best
batter they have, and opening is his best position. Rogers is a smart
selection, known as a decent player but also an intelligent one, but this is
not a long term move. This highlights Australia’s biggest problem, which is
their lack of batting depth, and the inability of every player except Clarke to
score heavily.
David Warner’s suspension means it is highly unlikely he
will play in either of the first two Tests, unless they take a flyer on him at
six. This ensures Ed Cowan’s selection at three, but he must start converting
starts on Warner will come back in. With Steve Smith essentially arriving as
cover for Clarke’s back injury, it seems both Hughes and Khawaja will play.
Hughes has suffered twice at the hands of England, firstly against the short
ball and then his lack of footwork outside off-stump, whilst Khawaja remains
thoroughly unconvincing. Hughes however is a confidence player, and should improve
under Lehmann.
The final selection sees Brad Haddin return ahead of Matthew
Wade as the wicketkeeper. Wade is talented but he has struggled badly keeping
to Nathan Lyon, and Haddin has had his biggest successes against England. Given
the strong praise for his performance as captain on the A tour, the selection
of Haddin as vice captain comes across as a shrewd move.
Bowling
James Faulkner, Ryan Harris, Peter Siddle, James Pattinson,
Mitchell Starc, Nathan Lyon and Jackson Bird.
From a weak batting line-up to an extremely strong pace
battery, this is Australia’s best chance of winning the series. Starc and
Pattinson are hugely promising young bowlers, with Starc’s left arm pace a
particular asset with England’s two most consistent run scorers, Cook and
Trott, both having poor records against left arm pace. Pattinson is quick, and
has the talent, but seems to almost be continuously injured. The main worry is
the form of Peter Siddle, who struggled in the warm up games, having deservedly
reached the heights of number five in the world. Siddle would be the wicket to
wicket bowler in the likely event of both Starc and Pattinson playing, which is
most likely their best attack in normal conditions.
However, Trent Bridge is not normal for the Australians. Siddle’s
poor form opens the door for both Jackson Bird and Ryan Harris. Bird is a very
traditional swing bowler, with an impressive understanding of length and in
normal English conditions he would be the ideal replacement if Siddle’s form is
considered a barrier to him playing. But Trent Bridge has been very dry
recently, making the outfield hard, ideal for reverse swing bowling, and ideal
for Harris. When fit, Harris is the best reverse swing bowler in the world, but
he is so rarely fit, suffering from a knee condition from which he cannot heal,
only rest. Harris was probably picked to only play two Tests, with the Oval a
near certainty to due to large square, aiding reverse swing. However,
conditions seem to have come into his favour, and whilst it would be a big punt
from Australia, it could pay off in spectacular fashion.
Of the remaining bowlers, James Faulkner is here if Starc
gets injured, or if England’s batters are truly awful against him. That leaves
Nathan Lyon, and I don’t care what the Australian media say, this guy can bowl.
He’s not a great bowler, he’s not destined for sporting immortality, but he is
a serviceable Test bowler. His main job in this series will be to keep things
tight, a role he is well suited to. Australia’s problems will arise if he needs
to attack, because that is the weakness in his bowling, a role maybe better
suited to Fawad Ahmed, if Australia add him to the squad. England need to treat
Lyon with respect, and he is not as poor as the spinners Australia had in the
last series.
Captain
Michael Clarke is a captain on the field who I like a lot.
He’s clearly highly involved with the game, he’s clearly not only able to
execute plans but come up with his own, and he comes across as the kind of
captain who can make something happen. His weaknesses are twofold; his
off-field captaincy, and his relationship with Shane Watson.
Off-field, Clarke has been far too happy to let the coach
take a bigger role than he should. The captain should be setting the standard,
should be involved when a player steps out of line. During the Champions
Trophy, Clarke was conspicuous by his absence, where it was left to Micky
Arthur and replacement captain George Bailey to step into. The constant sniping
between Clarke and Watson, in main over the power granted to Arthur, started to
split the dressing room. It created a vacuum of leadership, and whilst the
walkabout incident can only be blamed on Warner himself, it’s this kind of lack
of leadership that leads to these situations. It’s time for Michael Clarke to
realise being captain is more than just telling people what to do on the field.
Coach
Darren Lehmann is a highly regarded player, and has very
quickly established himself as an exciting young coach, his teams characterised
by players seemingly playing at the peak of their confidence. This will be huge
if he can inspire his team, and get the likes of Watson, Warner, Hughes and
Harris playing their best cricket. He’s also helped that the expectations for
this series in Australia are very low, as they expect their ill disciplined mob
to get thumped. The problem with the batting is well appreciated in Australia,
so Lehmann will get a pass on that until the winter. His problem is likely to
be his relationship with Clarke – Clarke was a huge fan of Arthur’s, and may
take time to gel with Lehmann, who is likely to improve the form of and thus
increase the influence of several of the players nipping at Clarke. If
Australia were to lose both series, it would not be a huge surprise to see
Clarke jump ship.
England
Batting
Alistair Cook (c), Joe Root, Jonathan Trott, Kevin
Pietersen, Ian Bell, Jonny Bairstow and Matt Prior (wk). Potential others
include Nick Compton, James Taylor and Ravi Bopara.
The big call was made two weeks ago, when the squad for the
Essex game was announced, where Nick Compton was dropped for Joe Root to move
up the order. As a long term move, it was the right call, but right before an
Ashes series England have heaped the pressure on Root. Fortunately, his
temperament has looked supreme in his career so far, and he appears ready for
the challenge. Compton has not so much been dropped for low scores as in the
manner in which he made them, seeming completely trapped by fear of failure.
Runs for Somerset, even against the Australians, have not proved enough.
With the settled players, we all know what Cook and Trott
will aim to do. Blunt the young quicks, and lay a platform for Pietersen to
take the game away. Both Cook and Trott, in particular Cook, have poor records
against left arm quicks and it was acknowledged as much when England asked for
both Tymal Mills and Reece Topley to play in the Essex match. Mills played, and
got both of them in the first innings. Pietersen is the stand out player in the
England side, as whilst the others are good players and more consistent,
Pietersen’s runs hurt sides, coming at a rate and an air of dominance that feel
like a punch to the gut. Bell is in a little bit of a “what have you done for
me lately” mode, but his record, particularly at five and six, is strong and if
the right platform is laid he could have a great series.
Jonny Bairstow is the man under pressure. Yet to fully
convince as a Test batsman, his battle with Lyon will be fascinating as
Bairstow’s poor play of spin is likely to be used as an opportunity to get Lyon
into the series by Australia. James Taylor has been in superb form for
Nottinghamshire this season, and if Bairstow suffers poor form, England should
not hesitate in bringing him in. Another player who could benefit from a poor Bairstow
run is perennial Flower favourite Ravi Bopara, who brings the added bonus of
his bowling. As for Prior, despite a poor series against New Zealand, he is the
best Test wicketkeeper batsman in the world, and a huge advantage for us over
Haddin. The big question is what would happen if Prior got injured, with
England given the choice of handing the gloves to Bairstow, or picking most
likely Steven Davies out of the county scene.
Bowling
James Anderson, Stuart Broad, Steven Finn, Tim Bresnan,
Graham Onions and Graeme Swann. Potential others include Boyd Rankin, Chris
Tremlett, Monty Panesar and James Tredwell.
In India, Jimmy Anderson finished his ascent to the height
of his ability, bowling with superb discipline in the most unhelpful conditions
he could have dreamt of. Whilst slightly disappointing in New Zealand, he has
started the summer in superb form and the highest praise I can offer him is
that he is certainly the second best fast bowler in the world after the near
untouchable Dale Steyn. His ability to swing the ball against an Australian
side weak on batting and experience in England will likely be the difference
between the sides. Backing him up is the mercurial Stuart Broad, who needs to
find the consistency of the tour of the UAE, where he suggested he was becoming
the bowler his talent merits.
The big call for England is their third seamer, with the
choice between Steven Finn and Tim Bresnan. As mentioned above, the Trent
Bridge outfield and pitch is predicted to be hard, which would encourage
England to pick Bresnan ahead of Finn. There are question marks over both
players, with Finn struggling with his new run-up, and Bresnan yet to find
decent form since his elbow first gave him pain during the Pakistan series. I
would back Finn as the bowler of greater talent and pick him, but I think
England will look to continue their success with reverse swing of recent months
and include Bresnan. Behind these four seamers, England are perhaps short of a
Test match ready bowler, with Graham Onions continuing to take wickets for
Durham but England’s current management appear unconvinced by his credentials,
and this England management group have a fantastic record at judging fast
bowling talent.
The latest fast bowler they have brought through is Boyd
Rankin, the tall Irishman who extracts a significant amount of lift, and
arrives with the added bonus of international experience with his home nation.
Selected in the squad for the Essex game, the feeling was this was more a
chance to look at him before possibly taking him to Australia this winter, but
it shows he is in the selector’s thoughts. Someone else surely in the
selector’s thoughts will be Chris Tremlett, who bowled superbly in Australia in
2010/11, before a back injury threatened to end his career. He’s now back and
bowling well for Surrey, and whilst England will want assurances that he is not
going to break down mid match, his past performances will encourage an early
recall, particularly if neither Finn nor Bresnan bowls with gusto.
Onto the spin options, where Graeme Swann remains an
outstanding Test match bowler, and with the advent of T20 cricket, maybe the
last great orthodox off-spinner. Swann is a potential match winner for England,
and whilst I have praised Lyon above, Lyon is not in the same league here. The
worry for England remains Swann’s elbow, which if it gives way leaves England
the rather unappetising prospect of choosing between a completely out of form
Monty Panesar and an out of form James Tredwell. Tredwell would probably get the
nod due to the number of left handers the Aussies have, but Swann staying fit
and bowling well is another crucial factor for England.
Captain
For everything I said about Michael Clarke, the reverse is
true of Alistair Cook. Cook has been correctly praised for the discipline and
example he sets off the field of play, with both his attention to detail and
his match preparation exemplary. Cook also need not worry too much about
dressing room harmony, as he has a superb second in command in Matt Prior.
Where Cook struggles is his on field captaincy. Whereas
Clarke is a bundle of energy and ideas, Cook seems downtrodden and lethargic.
It was particularly telling in New Zealand where Prior read the riot act before
NZ’s second innings in the final Test, whilst Cook remained mute. There are
going to be times when England struggle this series, and Cook needs to better
project himself to his teammates in those moments than he has done so far as
England captain.
Coach
Andy Flower is a perfectionist, who will leave no stone
unturned in terms of plans for the Australians, despite the fact that very few
of them have played against England before. Graham Gooch, a disappointing head
coach at Essex, remains an excellent batting coach and has seemed to be able to
build into the mindset of the England batters to get large scores, although he
must have been delighted to see his arrival coincide with that of Jonathan
Trott, with Gooch unable to find a more willing discipline for his approach to
batting.
The question England have over their coaching staff is
bowling coach David Saker. Saker has been very good for England, bringing the
best out of Anderson and spotting good talent. However, playing around with
Finn’s run-up has proved costly, and his selections over the last six months
have not been quite as good as when he started. He has a young family, but more
pertinently, England have one of the highest rated bowling coaches in the world
in Graeme Welch sitting at Warwickshire. Welch is universally praised as the
next big thing in bowling coaching, and has already worked with Flower and
Gooch at Essex. Saker will probably step aside after the series to seek a county
job whilst Welch steps up to international level.
Prediction
England should, and will win this series. Australia have the
potential to hurt England with their bowling line-up, but their batting will
not be good enough to deal with the trio of Anderson, Broad and Swann. I see
England winning 3-1, with Anderson and Starc taking player of the series for
their respective sides. In terms of runs, I see Trott and Watson being the
heaviest scorers for their teams.
