Tuesday 5 November 2013

1st Ashes Test - How They'll Line-Up



With the first Test coming up soon, and more markedly, the announcement of the Australian Test squad, here’s how I think the teams will line up in Brisbane on the 21st.

England

England are fairly settled, with nine certain starters for the 1st Test barring injury or an incredible loss of form – Alistair Cook, Joe Root, Jonathan Trott, Kevin Pietersen, Ian Bell, Matt Prior, Graeme Swann, Stuart Broad and James Anderson. Of those nine, only Root has never toured Australia before, so there is strong experience of Australian conditions. The holes in the England line-up are the fourth bowler, and the sixth batsman.

Starting with the fourth bowler, it was billed as a straight shootout between Chris Tremlett, Boyd Rankin and Steven Finn, with Tim Bresnan to come into the mix later in the series. Rankin was probably the slight favourite before the first tour match, mainly due to novelty, but his bounce hurried the Australians in the one day series at home. It looked like a good battle with three England quicks vying for a position.


Then, the first tour game happened, and by all accounts, all three bowlers were extremely poor (the general impression of the Aussie journalists was that the best English seamer they saw that day was Tymal Mills in the nets), with all three playing to old weaknesses. Tremlett looked like he didn’t have the heart for the battle, Rankin looked extremely nervous and Finn would bowl a loose ball every over. To say there were no winners would be unfair, as the bowler who really won was Tim Bresnan. Tremlett, only due to his performances two years ago, is now the likely starter, but all three still have hope.

The sixth batsman is proving slightly more tricky than anticipated. Cook’s sore back gave an opportunity to Michael Carberry, and Gary Ballance and Ben Stokes were also given a game. The best outcome for England was a cautious 30 from Carberry, a hundred from Ballance and a spritely 50 from Stokes. What they got was 70 from Carberry, and failures from both Stokes and Ballance, who was dismissed first ball.


This has led to a lot of unnecessary failing about Joe Root’s position as opener. To pick Carberry to open and move Root down to six, as has been mooted today, would at best be short-termism and at worst do considerable damage to Root’s confidence. England bought into Root as an opener during the summer, and for me that’s an investment they have to maintain. Carberry is a nice bloke, and after his health problems and consistent runs at county level it’s extremely nice to see him in the England squad, but he doesn’t look like he’s got a glittering international career ahead of him. Root however might have, and there’s no reason to play around with his confidence.

Stokes’ form over the past two years with the bat suggests that batting him at six would be a push, and given Prior’s summer, they are unlikely to fancy pushing the keeper up to six to accommodate Stokes all-round skills (yet, Stokes has a long international career ahead of him). The pick for England is Ballance, who has looked a cut above for Yorkshire this year. One good ball in the first tour match doesn’t chance this, and England should be prepared to back him.

Team – Cook, Root, Trott, Pietersen, Bell, Ballance, Prior, Broad, Swann, Tremlett (Bresnan when fit), Anderson

Australia

Australia have a different problem. Whilst England have an obvious 9 and have to find two, Australia have an obvious 13 but removing two becomes extremely difficult, because a huge amount depends on the balance of their side and their bowling attack. The 13 are Chris Rogers, Dave Warner, Shane Watson, Michael Clarke, Steve Smith, George Bailey, Brad Haddin, Mitchell Johnson, Peter Siddle, Ryan Harris, James Faulkner, Nathan Lyon and Fawad Ahmed.

There are 7 certain starters there for me – Rogers, Warner, Watson (if fit, he damaged a hamstring in the final ODI in India), Clarke, Haddin, Siddle and Harris (if fit, because let’s face it injury is inevitable with this man). Warner may have been under pressure after the Ashes series, but three big one day hundreds, and the manner in which he is striking the ball, along with the lack of a feasible replacement, mean he’ll be there in Brisbane.


With the rest, let’s start with England’s favourite Australian, Mitchell Johnson. For England fans, he is a figure of fun, a source of bad balls and an excellent Barmy Army song. For the Sri Lankan batsman earlier this year, he was a source of pain, both figuratively and for in some cases literally. He took wickets, broke bones, and was generally the terror he can be. When he is off, he is simply death to the fielding side as boundaries flow. When he is on, very few players have an answer, as was seen in one terrifying spell in Perth in 2010/11.

With no Pattinson, Starc or Bird, Johnson’s selection seems a must for Australia. But if he is picked, can they go with a four man attack. If Watson is unfit, Johnson as part of a four man attack seems a gamble too far if he doesn’t come off. The solution to this is obvious – pick James Faulkner. Faulkner reminds me a lot of Stuart Broad when he came through. He’s far from the finished article, but he has a certain hardness, a battle readiness, that marked Broad out from his arrival. Neither looked technically ready for Test cricket, but they clearly had a mental quality well beyond their years and an ability to create a spell or a boundary blast from nothing. Faulkner looks a match-winner and the Aussies would be well advised to pick him as part of a five man bowling attack which negates the risk of a Johnson off-day.

This brings us to the spinner, and again it’s not an easy choice. Straight off the bat, anyone who doesn’t think Fawad should be representing Australia, reserve your judgement until watching this. Lyon offers control but no great wicket threat. Fawad offers a real threat, but also plenty of four balls. If the Aussies go with a four man attack, I’d expect to see Lyon play. With a five man attack, Fawad becomes a more attractive option. If the Aussies go with a five man bowling attack, Lyon may start the series but I’d expect Fawad to end it.


That leaves two batsmen for one spot, Steve Smith and George Bailey. Bailey splits the Australian cricket public like no other cricketer, not even Johnson. To his supporters, of which I am one, he is a superb leader, a player with the mental capacity to succeed at Test cricket and deserving of his ODI form which sees him the best Australian one-day player since Michael Bevan. To his detractors, he’s a technically weak, over-confident and over-rated player who doesn’t deserve a spot in their ODI and t20 sides and certainly doesn’t deserve the captaincy. Two of his most ardent critics are two of the biggest names/ (mouths) in Australian cricket, in Shane Warne and Ian Chappell, whose opinion carries a lot of sway with the Aussie public.

For me, Bailey could bring a lot to the Australian side. They lack leadership, and he’s regarded as the best captain in Australia. Smith would be extremely unlucky to lose his place, as he carries a lot of the characteristics that make Bailey an attractive choice. He’s regarded as mentally strong, if potentially technically weak, and a strong presence in the dressing room and on the training field. In his last match for Australia, he scored an extremely impressive maiden Test hundred. The easy option for Australia is to avoid the choice between Smith and Bailey, pick both, and play four bowlers. But if they want to win this series, five bowlers is the way to hurt England. I’d go for Bailey, but a little part of me would be hoping Watson isn’t fit for the first Test.

There are other players Australia could call on. Eight fast bowlers are under CA’s control, the ones not mentioned being Ben Hilfenhaus, Josh Hazelwood, Chadd Sayers, Clint McKay and Nathan Coulter-Nile. On those, Sayers could be the best bet for when Ryan Harris needs resting. A late developer, Sayers swings the ball late at a decent pace, and would have the added advantage of the notoriously studious England not being able to find much footage of him. McKay and Hilfenhaus would bring consistency; Hazelwood and Coulter-Nile pace and bounce.

As for batsmen, Phil Hughes and Usman Khawaja will continue to be mentioned, whilst Shaun Marsh would be a very strong candidate for the number three slot should Watson not be fit for the 1st Test. Alex Doolan seems to be the upcoming young batsman, another highly rated Tasmanian youngster, who is another potential number three. The big problem for Australia is if an opener loses fitness or form. Ed Cowan’s time has surely passed, and most of the other opening options are converted number threes, such as Doolan. Hughes could make an unexpected return as opener if Warner fails to fire.

Team – Rogers, Warner, Watson, Clarke, Bailey, Haddin, Faulkner, Johnson, Siddle, Harris, Lyon. That’s my side, bit I expect Australia to pick Smith over Faulkner.

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