World T20 - The Main Tournament

After the Associate starter, here comes the main course

Group A

Winners – New Zealand

I will start off by saying that this is not the strongest group, although it gets the X-Factor of Ireland, a team capable of beating all four sides. New Zealand cricket is on a bit of an upswing after beating India, thanks to two immense performances from Brendon McCullum. Spin bowling is an issue, in fact a big issue, but so is it for everyone else in this group. With the exception of Kane Williamson, New Zealand have a power packed line-up, featuring McCullum, Ross Taylor, Martin Guptill and Corey Anderson, and a couple of their bowlers hit long as well. They won’t win all four games, but they will thrash someone (England?) and that will be enough for them to top the group.

One to watch – Tim Southee

Lots of people will be pointing to McCullum after his exploits against India, but he has struggled in t20 on subcontinent pitches, his explosion in game 1 of the IPL aside. Corey Anderson offers a lot in he can bowl, he can field, and he can hit it miles, but he is completely unproven in Asia. The man who will have a huge say in New Zealand’s performances is Tim Southee, who will bowl in the power play and at the death. Southee is not quick, but bowls an excellent yorker, and he’ll bowl the big overs for the Black Caps. The big problem for Southee is if he gets it wrong, its 80mph and it’s in the slot – in tight games, Southee will be the winner or loser for New Zealand.

2^nd – Sri Lanka

Straight off the bat they have an unknown quantity as captain in Dinesh Chandimal, which given that the triumvirate of Jayawardene, Sangakarra and Dilshan seem to have been rotating the captaincy for the past thirty years, is a worry for them. However, on field captaincy under pressure can be fairly easy for Chandimal – he can just ask Lasith Malinga to bowl a yorker, which Malinga will inevitably produce. This is the standard Sri Lanka World Cup team, don’t look world beaters or paper, but don’t have any obvious weaknesses either. They’ll also follow the standard Sri Lanka World Cup formula of beating all the teams they should before losing to someone better in the knockout stages.

One to watch – Lasith Malinga

To a lot of people, when you say T20 cricket, they think of big hits, Chris Gayle smoking the ball out of the ground, AB de Villiers reverse scooping, Kieron Pollard plucking balls out of the sky. To me, when I hear T20 cricket, I see Malinga at the top of his run, moving into a slow jog as he kisses the ball, curly permed hair bouncing like a 1980s female soap opera character, arm and shoulder arching like a trebuchet as he reaches the crease, before delivering a flat yorker which rattles into the hapless batsman’s off stump, removing it from the ground like a cork from a champagne bottle. He is the best T20 cricketer in the world simply because he is the best bowler allied with the fact you know you can bowl him multiple overs in the powerplay, which is everything a captain could want.

3^rd – South Africa

They have a lot of good cricketers, but I’m not really sold on this South African T20 side. Their big bowling weapon, Dale Steyn, is coming in injured; Wayne Parnell is coming in injured; Morne Morkel has never really done it in T20s, and the spinners are the inconsistent Tahir and the limited Phangiso. The batting is better but not perfect, as whilst they have the genius that is AB de Villiers, I imagine he has had other things on his mind recently. Alluding to the captaincy, Faf du Plessis is in charge, his one proper audition if South Africa are thinking outside of the obvious choice. He is harmed by the fact that his biggest successes in T20 cricket have come as an opener, but they also have Hashim Amla, who has to open if he plays, and hugely talented youngster Quinton de Kock, who one day may rule the world but right it is a big ask for him to take on and thrive against the best bowlers in the world. However, they will be the best fielding side because that’s what South Africa always are, and they do have one ace up their sleeve.....

One to watch – David Miller

A player who is the true anti-Amla, all power and no grace, Miller has been hugely successful around the world in T20, and really thrust his name into the big time with a seen to be believed 101* for Kings XI against RCB in the 2013 IPL. If you bowl in his arc, it disappears, mainly through the leg side. He is technically limited, and hence against the very best bowlers he may well struggle, but he could utterly explode in any game, and win South Africa a game they have no right to.

4^th - Ireland

The final game will be between them and England – if England are out, and I think they will be, then Ireland are the team with more to gain from the game, and they posses almost as much talent.

5^th – England

Frankly, at the minute, they are a mess. Without wanting to open up old debates, the selection of the squad when it was originally announced beggared belief. If England wanted to end Kevin Pietersen’s career, that was fine, but it is typical of their winter that England have managed to engineer a situation which benefits none of those involved. The team could have done with his T20 ability and experience; Giles and Broad could have done with their best player; and Pietersen himself could have done with a goodbye that would simultaneously boost his IPL value. Mentioning Giles, England have a white ball coach who no-one knows whether he won’t be coaching England at all at the end of the tournament, or whether he’ll be in charge of all three formats, and has stated as a coach that his preference is for long format cricket.

Then, Joe Root broke a thumb, and England called up Ian Bell, who hasn’t played a professional T20 match for over three years, over Samit Patel, a like-for-like replacement (you wouldn’t get them confused though) or Owais Shah, the fifth highest run scorer in all T20 cricket. Ben Stokes broke his wrist punching a locker in the midst of poor form, leading to a deserved but uninspiring recall for Chris Woakes. Added to this both Stuart Broad and Eoin Morgan, captain and vice captain, are carrying injuries. England have the talent to win games, but a poor start could see the wheels fall off, and Ireland are more than capable of taking advantage.

One to watch – Jos Buttler

The one hope for England is that Jos Buttler does something extraordinary. Hugely successful in England’s domestic T20, Buttler has begun to translate his hitting into international white ball cricket whilst also improving his wicket keeping. The England Test wicket-keeper role is also vacant, so a big tournament from Buttler could catapult him into the keeping role in all three formats.

Group B

Winners – India

India can be summed up in one question – can their batting and spin bowling overcome their quick bowling? I think yes they can, particularly having seen the Dhaka wicket than Bangladesh murdered Afghanistan on. They have three proven spinners in the IPL in Ashwin, Jadeja and Mishra, who gets a long overdue chance in international t20 cricket. The batting is outstanding – Rohit Sharma, Shikhar Dhawan, Ajinka Rahane, Yuvraj Singh and Suresh Raina have great track records either internationally or in the IPL, and that’s ignoring the jewels in the crown – Virat Kohli and MS Dhoni. Kohli will set you up, and Dhoni will knock you down. In a tight game chasing, if India have one of these two at the crease, you know who you are backing.

The weakness is the fast bowling. Varun Aaron is raw, cricket language for inconsistent. Buvi Kumar looks accurate and can swing the ball, but if he sticks it in the slot he’s not quick enough to be anything other than a free hit. Mohit Sharma is a slightly worse version of Kumar, whilst Mohammed Shami, a bowler I rate, is untried in t20. India’s big weakness is if they are defending in a tight game and one of those four has to bowl a couple of overs under pressure. Anything else and they are nigh on unbeatable.

One to watch – Virat Kohli

He follows some great players into the India team, but I would put my neck out and say he has the potential to be better than any of them. The ability of Tendulkar allied with the backbone of Ganguly, there is no obvious deficiency in his game other than his ego, and there are signs that this is beginning to disappear. I hope India don’t lumber him with the captaincy, because when he is batting he is a real box office player, full of sub continent style and stroke play. He is on his way to becoming the best player in the world, and maybe the best to watch as well.

2^nd – Australia

A not very likeable bunch of individuals, but this is potentially a great t20 side. The loss of Mitchell Johnson will hurt, enough that I have changed my pre-tournament prediction that they would win it all, but they are still very good. The potential top four is frightening, with David Warner in the form of his life, Aaron Finch a proven t20 star around the world, Cameron White coming off a huge Big Bash and lastly, and most importantly, Shane Watson – Player of the Tournament at the last World t20 and the last IPL. Watson sums up this side – not someone whom you want to do well, but will do well in this format regardless.

People will point to the spinners and the old boys as weak points, but there is method behind the madness. Successful spinners in t20 tend to be one of two things – experienced or unknown. In Brad Hogg and James Muirhead, the Aussies have both bases covered. Brad Hodge and Doug Bollinger may be past their best, but they are both proven quantities in t20, particularly Hodge, who has an outstanding record as a finisher.

One to watch – George Bailey

George Bailey’s relationship with the Australian public and media is a fickle and complicated one. Selected as captain of their t20 side before he’d played an international, he drew derision from those in Australia where the common thinking is the best eleven should be picked, and then the captain from them. He did well enough to get into the ODI side, where it was heralded as a sign of how weak the Australians were. Then something changed – Bailey dared to stand up to Steve McNamara, owner of Channel 9, the broadcasting company in Australia. Channel 9’s criticism of him became even more viscous. But the Australian public could see a hatchet job, and warmed to Bailey. He is now in the odd situation where the more the pundits criticise him the more the public like him.

Bailey’s captaincy, often ignored by his detractors, is superb. Tasmania tried and failed to win the Sheffield Shield for 100 years. Bailey won three for them as captain. He is credited within the Australian dressing room as being key in helping Darren Lehmann get his message across, along with Ryan Harris. He’s seen as a nice guy, a grafter who lacks talent, a thinking man’s cricketer – no wonder the former Aussie pros hate him. Nothing sums him up better than the day he won his third title with Tasmania, Brett Geeves wrote an article in the national press saying how rubbish he was. In short, Bailey is a captain with an outstanding record hated by the Australian cricket establishment and liked by the public – win this tournament and he might finally change a few minds.

3^rd – Pakistan

Pretty much since the retirement of Saeed Anwar every time you review Pakistan you have to say the same thing. Bowling excellent, fielding poor, and batting awful. I got burnt saying Pakistan would win the tournament last time around, as once again their batting prevented their bowlers from taking a deserved title. Junaid Khan and Umar Gul are two very handy quicks, particularly Junaid, who is going to make a huge breakthrough sooner or later. The spin is outstanding, and varied. Saaed Ajmal is the best spin bowler in world cricket, although perhaps not in t20 (it’s a shame he isn’t allowed to play in the IPL to see him in contrast to Narine), Shahid Afridi an excellent white ball bowler, and they are added to by Mohammed Hafeez’s darts. The final bowler will be between Bilawal Bhatti, Mohammed Talha, Sohail Tanvir and Zulfiqar Babar, a decent bowling attack in their own right.

But then there’s the batting, and to a certain extent, the fielding, and there are question marks everywhere. Umar Akmal is probably their best player but he remains mired in inconsistency, Hafeez has had a poor year, and whilst Ahmed Shehzad, Sohaib Maqsood and Sharjeel Khan are all decent looking prospects they are all fairly inexperienced. Given they are also missing Misbah’s captaincy and Younis Khan’s experience I’m inclined to back Australia to survive trial by spin against them.

One to watch – Shahid Afridi

Afridi is perhaps the ultimate poster boy for Pakistan cricket – brilliant and inconsistent in often the same over, controversial, and a brilliant bowler who underachieves with the bat. His bowling in t20 is very good, mixing some nippy leg spin with an excellent arm ball (it’s not a googly, he bowls it from wide of the crease), and he also bowls pretty smartly - which makes his often stupid batting all the more galling. I’m not sure Afridi has ever faced a ball he didn’t think he could hit for six, and perishes often trying just that. But if he comes off, it’s game over, and with Kieron Pollard injured, he is the player after Chris Gayle that will cause the most fear. When he plays well, Pakistan can beat anyone, but does he want to bat for his reputation, or for the side?

4^th – West Indies

I’ve put them fourth in this group, but they could just as equally lose every game as win the entire tournament. The talent is there, but they are even more maddeningly inconsistent as individuals than Pakistan, and the feel good vibes of Darren Sammy’s captaincy at the last tournament have turned into, as the West Indian media would have you believe, a big split in the dressing room between a Sammy camp and a Bravo camp. Chris Gayle has a look of distinct disinterest at the moment, but the big crowds may get the juices flowing once again for Gayle, who is the world leading t20 batter.

The pace bowling looks the weak spot, although Krishmar Santokie has impressed in his limited appearances. Sunil Narine is the real strength in the bowling, a real mystery spinner who has humiliated far better players than Luke Wright, as he did in the warm up series. Samuel Badree (more on him below) provides the backup spin option, but he’ll likely open the bowling with one of the quicks. Dwayne Bravo often takes wickets in t20, and can obviously swing the blade as well, but his strength is as a wicket-taker and not as an economic bowler, the absence of which is a real problem. Kieron Pollard’s injury is also a nuisance but West Indies will hope they can cover him with improved performances from Bravo and Sammy.

One to watch – Samuel Badree

Describing Samuel Badree as a leg-spinner seems unfair, as he doesn’t really turn the ball, or even give it that much chance to spin. Badree’s flat, slight turning leg spin is almost like a difficult to judge medium pacer, as he fires the ball in towards leg stump with virtually no flight. It doesn’t sound like much, but early on in powerplay it’s tough for a batter at the start of their innings to hit over the top against that type of bowling. West Indies will look for Badree to get his four overs in for under twenty, forcing sides to attack Narine.

5^th Bangladesh

How they will wish they’d been drawn in the other group

Semi-Finals

Australia beat New Zealand

I fancy Australia to have too much here, for everything New Zealand do well Australia do slightly better. Johnson is a loss but the Aussies will win a high scoring game.

India beat Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka don’t quite have the batting to set India a decent target, and with Kohli and Dhoni, they have two elite finishers who can handle Malinga.

Final

India beat Australia

India’s spinners will get them home to win the crown over Australia, whose lack of a proven international spinner will come back to haunt them.

Player of the Tournament – Virat Kohli

Most Runs – Shane Watson

Most Wickets – Ravi Ashwin