Hales The Solution To Morgan's Problems

After his failure against Australia, for the first time since 2010 Eoin Morgan's ODI average for England dropped below 40. In 2013, he now has scored 218 at 21.80 and has gone 12 games without a half century, having previously averaged one every four games. This is a worrying loss of form for possibly England's most important ODI batsman, particularly at the start of a tournament.

Yet I don't think it's his fault.

In 2009 & 2010, Morgan averaged 45 at a strike rate of 90. Those are fantastic numbers for a middle order player and helped England to a much more successful period in their ODI form. From 2011 onwards he has averaged 34. Natural logic would dictate that when a player's average drops, so does his strike rate. The higher a player's average, the more runs that player is scoring. The more runs that player scores, the longer they've batted, and the longer they've batted, the quicker you should be scoring. Essentially you would expect a positive relationship between average and strike rate, and this is shown throughout cricket history. Except in this case, where since 2011 Morgan's strike rate in ODIs is 95.

So Morgan is scoring quicker but less runs. The reasons behind this are the change in England's top three in the two periods. In 2009 and 2010, England looked to use a pinch-hitter with Andrew Strauss, mainly Steven Davies and Craig Kieswetter. Since 2011, given Kevin Pietersen's almost permanent absence, England have had a settled top three of Alistair Cook, Ian Bell and Jonathan Trott.

The move away from the pinch-hitter has certainly worked for England in terms of the success at the start. Bell as an opener looks an ODI player reinvented, and Trott is averaging over 50 for ODIs. Cook has replicated Strauss' form over the period, which is that of a decent ODI player without being spectacular. But England are starting much slower, and this is heaping the pressure on Morgan. In England's current side he is the only player with the potential to clear the ropes regularly in the top five, and this pressure has badly affected his form. Compared to pre-2011, he now finds himself having to score quicker with less time to play himself in, and this is reflected in his numbers.

The first question is whether this is actually a problem for England. They are still roughly winning the same number of games in both periods, and England can afford to score slowly when they have the bowling attack they possess. But this top three leaves England an extremely one dimensional side. Excellent in home conditions where they can keep sides to 250-270, but away from home on flat tracks or with foreign balls, England are simply incapable of setting competitive totals or chasing anything in excess of 300.

So what's the solution? A very simple answer is "Kevin Pietersen". Had he been both fit and available after the 2011 World Cup, Pietersen would have been given the chance to open and Bell and Trott left to compete for the three spot. But in his absence, England have taken the soft option and kept the experienced Bell and Trott without opting to take a risk by selecting a young player or by dropping either player. My view is replace Trott with Pietersen when fit, and in Pietersen's absence, Alex Hales.

Hales has performed better than competently for the T20 side, and is now up to number six in the world rankings. He hits a far longer ball than the other options for the top three, and would release Morgan from the pressure of being the only big hitter. It would give England a more aggressive look, and would take the pressure also off the bowling attack, given the poor form of those players replacing our first choice seamers.

My side for the Champions Trophy - Alistair Cook (c), Ian Bell, Alex Hales, Joe Root, Eoin Morgan, Jos Buttler, Peter Trego, Stuart Broad, Graeme Swann, James Anderson, Steven Finn