Better the Devil You Know?

When I first started watching Test cricket, it was drilled into me by commentators and players need time to settle when making their debut, particularly batsmen. It was best summarised by an ex-player (I cannot remember who) who said that when you play elite club cricket, there will be a bad ball every couple of overs. When stepping up into county cricket, there would be a bad ball every four overs. But in Test matches, there would be no bad balls. Instead, as a batsman, you had to change your perspective on what was actually a bad ball.

This meant that even if a player struggled on debut, that they shouldn't be judged for it. Players did often struggle. But a quick look at the debuts of the current England test squad shows that a different dynamic is developing:-

Alistair Cook - 60 & 104*
Jonny Bairstow - 16 & 0*
Ian Bell - 70
Nick Compton - 9 & 37
Kevin Pietersen - 57 & 64*
Matt Prior - 126* & 21
Joe Root - 73 & 20*
Jonathan Trott - 41 & 119

As a group, they average 81.70 on debut compared to 47.74 for their overall Test career. Mid-summer, with Strauss in the team (who scored nearly 200 runs on debut), that figure was even higher. What has caused this success on debut for so many of the England batsmen (for the bowlers, it is a similar story, although not quite as pronounced. It is also easier for bowlers to debut - a nervous opening spell is not the end of their game whilst a nervous shot from a batsman could well be)

There are many factors at play. Half of the above players (Bairstow, Pietersen, Prior and Trott) had made their international debuts in other formats, and with the exception of Trott had at least had some success. The England Lions programme is immensely successful (even if the Australian A team is thumping them currently), and most of the players had experience of that. England now select better players, with more weight since Duncan Fletcher's appointment given to personality and less to pure runs. But for me the biggest factor is a lot of international coaches favourite weapon - video analysis.

Put yourself in Fletcher's shoes before the 4th test in India when Joe Root made his debut. Fletcher, and his bowlers, decide to come up with new plans for England's batsman. They start with Kevin Pietersen. I can say with almost pure certainty that every single innings KP has played at international level will have been shown on some form of live television. Watch him play any Test bowler he has faced, on any Test ground he has played at. Want to watch him play the sweep one hundred times? The drive? The pull? A request to the analysts section of the team support and it should be done.

But whilst coverage of international cricket has increased, coverage of domestic cricket has almost ceased to exist. If India want footage of Joe Root in that situation, particularly in red-ball cricket, then they will have to search long and hard to find it. The absence of footage makes a player harder to plan for, harder to analyse strengths and weaknesses. With the added benefit of the better preparation mentioned above, there has never been a better time to make your debut in Test cricket.

This could well have a significant impact on the Ashes. England have the benefit of home conditions, the more settled side and less injury concerns. A lot has been made of how few of the potential touring party, particularly batsmen, have played in England before. But this may benefit Australia, with the likes of Cowan, Warner, Maxwell, Wade, Cummins, Pattinson and Starc all partially hidden from England. 

There may of course be the perfect storm for England. Enough footage to plan and the Aussies inexperienced enough to deal with English conditions. But if the Australians adapt quicker then the retirements of Katich, Ponting and Hussey may not seem the brilliant news it was in the winter.

The Curious Case of Craig Kieswetter

For the upcoming tour of New Zealand, England have once again changed their white ball wicket-keeper. For long time England fans this isn't anything new, since the 2001 tour of India when Alec Stewart chose not to go due to safety concerns, England have seemingly changed their ODI wicket-keeper with free abandon. In that time, England have been through Alec Stewart, Chris Read, James Foster, Geraint Jones, Phil Nixon, Matt Prior, Tim Ambrose, Phil Mustard, Steven Davies, Craig Kieswetter and now Jos Buttler. This list doesn't even include the brief experiments with Marcus Trescothick and Eoin Morgan. 

Kieswetter is the latest player to have been tried, deemed to have failed, and sent back to county cricket to re-learn his trade. I am happy to admit that I am no fan of Kieswetter, and was a firm advocate of dropping him for Buttler, but a closer look at Kieswetter's career shows just how hard it is going to be for Buttler (or Jonny Bairstow) to nail down this position.

With the gloves, Kieswetter averages just short of 29 at a strike rate of 90. Those don't sound amazing figures, but of the ten keepers mentioned above (ignoring Buttler) that's good enough for 3rd for both average and strike rate (behind Stewart and Davies, and Davies and Mustard). Whilst his keeping is often maligned, his bye/dismissal ratio is a match for anyone on this list.

So why has he been dropped? Well, firstly it's no surprise. Forced out of the T20 side by Buttler in October, many felt that Kieswetter was merely keeping the gloves warm. The only debate was whether to replace him with Buttler, or bring back Matt Prior. Yet whilst Kieswetter both keeps and bats ahead of Buttler when they play together for Somerset, Prior averages significantly less than Kieswetter and scores his runs significantly slower. 

England's and Kieswetter's problems may simply be that the standard for an international white ball keeper has been set too high. Over the last decade, firstly Adam Gilchrist re-defined what it meant to be a wicket-keeper/batsman, and in ODI cricket, MS Dhoni has taken that even further. Dhoni is not just the keeper, he is the key wicket to beat India. Every ODI against India this winter the message has been clear - "Got to get Dhoni early"

Now, it seems the model for every side is either to try and find a Gilchrist, or a Dhoni. So many keepers can be used as evidence, but one of the best examples is the use of 20-year-old Quinton de Kock in the ODI series between South Africa and New Zealand. Bought in for his debut, de Kock was not given a chance to learn at seven. He was expected to open.

My last thought on this - Mark Boucher is rightly regarded as one of the finest wicket-keepers in international history, and has 295 ODI caps to his credit. His stats? An average of 28 at a strike rate of 85. Matthew Wade, the new Australian wicket-keeping hope who most feel has started his career promisingly? He's averaging 22 at a rate of 67.

I'm not saying Kieswetter is better than Boucher, but simply showing that the standard for an international keeper has reached dizzying heights. Good luck Jos, you're going to need it.

England's Top 25 Cricketers after India

25 – James Taylor – Seems a long time ago that he played those two Test matches, but Lions captaincy and dropping of Morgan and Patel means he’s still in the picture.

24 – Stuart Meaker – Good red ball part of the India followed by a poor white ball part, but offers England something different.

23 – Luke Wright – T20 only, but hugely important to England going forward both with the runs he scores and his global knowledge of T20 players.

22 – Samit Patel – Had his chance in India, and failed to take it. Remains a part of the white ball set-up, but the emergence of Root means he’s under pressure.

21 – Jade Dernbach – Out of sorts in India, and expensive even when bowling well. In his defence he is another bowler offering something different but needs a good run this summer.

20 – Alex Hales – England’s highest T20 run scorer in 2012, 2013 is an opportunity to push on and pressure players in the ODI team.

19 – Tim Bresnan – Dropping fast, England have kindly offered his elbow as an excuse but there is perhaps a feeling that opposition batsmen have worked him out. Performance in last ODI gives him something to run with though.

18 – Chris Woakes – Going to New Zealand against expectations having lost a lot of his pace over the past 18 months. However, can bat better than any of England’s over bowlers and if he can get back up to 85mph he’ll take Bresnan’s white ball place without much resistance.

17 – James Tredwell – Full credit to Tredwell, he always looks an uninspiring choice but he has done the job every time in an England shirt. The likes of Kerrigan and Briggs will have to wait.

16 – Jos Buttler – Keiswetter’s dropping means the pressure is now on Buttler, no longer the young man in the side learning the game but now expected to produce. He has the ability to do so.

15 – Jonny Bairstow – Rough tour for Bairstow, who played only one Test, was passed by Root and then headed home due to a family illness. Still a part of all three set-ups, needs to show he’s the man to keep wicket and not Buttler.

14 – Monty Panesar – Excellent in India but remains behind Swann in the Test pecking order, and his white ball international career is over. Could force England to play two spinners in the Ashes next summer on the right pitch.

13 – Nick Compton – Quietly impressive in India, but unlikely to break into the white ball sides and the feeling is he is merely keeping the opening spot warm for Root. Runs in New Zealand might dispel that until the Ashes.

12 – Graham Onions – Extremely unlucky not to be selected for the final Test in India, but New Zealand is the big moment for Onions. Bowl well and he can take Broad’s place, but bowl poorly and that might be it. More likely the former than the latter.

11 – Eoin Morgan – Test career looks in tatters, but is crucial to both England white ball teams. Decision over the IPL this year will give a strong indicator of whether he feels he can get back in the Test team.

10 – Joe Root – Debuts in all three formats, an impressive batsman, an impressive tourist and looks to have a massive future. Off-spin and fielding are both extremely handy.

9 – Stuart Broad – Probably the worst tour of his England career, but he’s still T20 captain and still our best quick bowler with the white ball. Would like to out-perform Onions in New Zealand to re-affirm test hierarchy.

8 – Ian Bell – Fair to describe India as an up and down tour for Bell, although test performances can be excused for obvious reasons. Would be higher but England have a fair amount of top-order batting currently.

7 – Jonathan Trott – Talking of top order batting, Trott remains integral to the Test side and is probably the most natural number 3 I’ve seen for England. Expect a tussle with Bell for the opening spot in the ODI side this summer.

6 – Steven Finn – If he can have 12 months of fitness and lose this habit of kicking the stumps or make it so the umpires don’t single him out, then he might well end the tour of Australia as England’s best bowler.

5 – Graeme Swann – Hugely important to all three sides, although performances of Panesar and Tredwell highlight he is not as irreplaceable as others above him. Elbow remains an injury concern and if England want him at the 2015 World Cup something has got to give.

4 – Kevin Pietersen – Fully re-integrated and remains England’s only batsman who you would fear across all formats. Has to be given time to make big innings in both white ball formats and that means staying at 3 in the ODI side and opening with Hales in the T20.

3 – Matt Prior – White ball career is over, but Prior is the best wicket-keeper batsman in the world and when Broad was injured was the vice-captain to all intensive purposes. Anyone doubting his performance needs to think about who would replace him if he got injured.

2 – James Anderson – Outstanding in the Tests in India, and missed in the ODI series. England right to keep him fit for the Ashes as the Australians remain highly suspect against high quality swing bowling.

1 – Alistair Cook – His batting was truly brilliant in India, and his relentless discipline an outstanding example to his younger teammates and some of the others as well. Must keep his ODI scoring rate above 80 this year to alleviate the pressure on KP but there are no Australians looking forward to bowling at him.

6 Cricketers to Watch in 2013

Six players you might not have heard of who could break through in 2013

Azeem Rafiq

For a young man of 21, Rafiq has worryingly twice made the headlines for the wrong reasons, firstly when Yorkshire selected him for their T20 side without realising he was ineligable, and then three years later when a twitter outburst when he was dropped from the England U19 side (Twitter - English cricket's best friend). However, Rafiq is a highly talented off-spinner who can both bat and field to a better than average standard.

Where Rafiq might make progress is through both personality and opportunity. He was England U19 captain, he has captained Yorkshire last season and is seen to have long term leadershi potential. The opportunity may come as there are growing concerns about Graeme Swann's elbow, and with the next T20 World Cup in Bangladesh, and the next 50 over World Cup not until 2015, England may look to blood a young spinner, particularly one who could function as an international number seven.

Quinton de Kock

When you lose one of the finest wicketkeepers to have played Test cricket to a sudden career ending injury, and the domestic replacements seem uninspiring and you feel forced to load one of your best batters and vice-captain with keeping in all three formats, you would probably be quite excited if a young 20 year old genuine wicketkeeper batsman suddenly burst through.

South Africa are excited and on the minimal evidence so far, they have good reason to be. First Class runs have come easy, as did runs in the under-19 World Cup, before de Kock announced himself with mature and impressive performances in the T20 Champions League. He played all three T20's against New Zealand and with South Africa having to manage AB de Villiers workload, more caps could come, and he could force his way into the Test team.

Meg Lanning

Lanning's problem is not one of making her way into the Australia side - at the age of 20 she is already regarded as their best batter. Her problem is one of notoriety, with the Aussie women's cricket side remaining unknown in their own country. This could change this year with both a women's World Cup, and a women's Ashes series. Lanning will open for Australia in all three forms of the game and be the key wicket for England to get.

As for 2012, Lanning was an integral part of the Aussie side that won the World T20 (3rd highest run scorer in the competition). In the last two months she's broken the record for the highest score in Aussie domestic cricket, before in four games against New Zealand she scored 300 runs off 209 balls, including the fastest ever hundred by a woman in an ODI and the third fastest by someone of either gender.

Anamul Haque

Bangladesh have been playing Test cricket for a decade now, and whilst sides should be given a long settling period, now is the time that they should be producing youngsters that can consistently produce on the international stage. They will be hoping that Anamul Haque will be one of the first.

He comes with a big reputation. He has a reputation for scoring big runs, and was way ahead of all other batters at the Under-19 World Cup. The hype, particularly in a country starved of success with a highly excitable fanbase, built quickly. He made his ODI debut against West Indies, and scored a match winning 100 in the second game, a series Bangladesh ended up winning. For Haque, who will certainly play all three formats, he must score runs, he must learn quickly and he must help Bangladesh to win games.

Lahiru Madushanka

This is very, very speculative and based entirely on promising performances at the under-19 World Cup, but sometimes it's the player with the greater opportunity than the player with greater talent that makes waves.

Sri Lankan cricket is struggling at the minute, with financial issues at board level and a major loss of talent either having happened with Muralitharan and Malinga, or about the happen with the pending retirement of Jaywardene, with Sangakarra and Dilshan not far behind. In particular, Sri Lanka are without any notorious fast bowlers (with the exception of white ball specialist Malinga). Maybe this will be the year they take a risk and go with the 20 year old Nondescripts bowler.

Ajinkya Rahane

If ever a player summed the confused state of the Indian selectors then Ajinkya "Jinx" Rahane is the problem in a nutshell. Whilst Gambhir and Sehwag have muddled their way through the past three years, Rahane has scored run after run for Mumbai in Indian domestic cricket. Blessed with a calm temperament, nigh on perfect technique, and a habit of scoring big, Rahane is Dravid-incarnate.

Rahane has been given chances in ODI's and T20's, with limited success, but it is widely acknowledged that red ball cricket is his best format yet a test debut has not yet come. With the defeat to England, surely Rahane will now finally, finally get his chance. Seen by Indian fans as the kind of player who will instantly change the fortunes of the side, he will be under pressure, but expect him to rise to it. A truly outstanding player certain to make an impact.

Other players worth a look - Pat Cummins, Junaid Khan, Akila Dananjaya, Ben Foakes, Merchant de Lange, Georgia Elwiss, Shiv Thakor

2012 in Cricket

A post of the best in cricket in 2012:-

Team of the Year

In four Test series, three ODI's series and four T20 series they were unbeaten. They topped the rankings in all three formats, and have players in the top two or three of both Test and ODI rankings. 2012 should be remembered as the year South Africa finally delivered on their undoubted talent and went from being one of the best to the best.

Success was built around the form of Amla and Kallis's batting in Tests, and Amla and AB de Villiers in ODI's. Steyn, Philander and Morkel have a perfect mixture of being three outstanding fast bowlers with vastly different skill sets, and they still have Merchant de Lange to bring in should one of the previous three lose form. The batting line-up, now with the addition of Faf du Plessis, looks to have six quality test batters. AB's long term future as the keeper needs to be sorted, but with almost perfect timing 19 year-old Quintin De Kock has popped up. They could be very good for a very long time.

Honourable Mentions - West Indies (please not another false dawn), England Women (won every game bar the one that mattered most), Ireland (deserve their chance at the top table)

Batter of the Year

Tests - 11M, 1,595R @ 106.33
ODI - 15M, 656R @ 46.85

For Michael Clarke, the ODI numbers are very good, and only Kohli, Amla and De Villiers can be said to have had better years in that format. The Test numbers are staggering, not only compared to other players this year, but any player for any year in the last decade. What makes it so special is his progression into a truly heavy run scorer (no Test 200's before this year, four in 2012, one of which was a 300) whilst balancing the captaincy and the state of flux that the Aussie top order finds itself in, he hasn't always had the luxury of good starts to fall back.

He probably would have broken the world record against India, where he declared when he was on 329, to give his bowlers two and a half days to bowl out India. They did it in half that time. But his best innings, the sensational 230 against Australia, where on the first day he simply battered the best bowling attack in the world to all parts of Adelaide, only for his bowlers to be unable to force the win, will live long in the memory

Honourable Mentions - Hashim Amla (run machine), Marlon Samuels (a talent finally, finally delivered), Virat Kohli (white ball king)

Bowler of the Year

Tests - 39W @ 20.56
ODI - 31W @ 19.77
T20 - 25W @ 15.64

Whatever the format, wherever the game, Saeed Ajmal is the premier bowler in Pakistan's armoury. The debate over his action and doosra will continue (In my view if Murali got away with it then why shouldn't he), but that shouldn't detract from the fact that he has reached a level that very few spinners reach. He can bowl with both control and the ability to take wickets, attested by both a better than average strike rate and a fantastic economy rate in the limited overs game.

He blitzed England earlier in the year, and has performed consistently for Pakistan in white ball cricket, which is remarkable given the words "Pakistan", "cricket" and "consistent" and mentioned about as often as the words "Jonathan Trott" and "flair". He's come to international cricket late and will likely never play a match in his home country, so try and forget about the action and watch him bowl.

Honourable Mentions - Rangana Herath (who knew?), Peter Siddle (guts, guts and more guts), Sunil Narine (true test comes in Test matches in 2013)

Innings of the Year

Kevin Pietersen - 149 v South Africa, 2nd Test

Whatever the rights and wrongs, the whispers and the truths of the KP text/twitter/teammate farrago, there are a few things that hold true when he walked out to bat at Headingley in the 2nd test:-

- in his own mind he was unhappy in the dressing room
- South Africa were utterly on top in the series and match
- The South African pace bowling attack was currently the best in the world

The innings that followed showed the very best of Pietersen as both a player and individual (much as behaviour after the test showed the very worst). South Africa are on top, the best fast bowler in the world is somewhere near his best and he is ably supported by a varied attack and the best fielding unit you could want. Pietersen came out, puffed out his shoulders, and single handly grabbed back the momentum for England.

He began by building an innings, brutally dispatching the few bad balls he received. When South Africa switched to short ball tactics, he swatted Morkel into the leg side fence. But the coupe of grace was late in the day, when South Africa took the new ball. Firstly he thumped Philander for four and then strolled down the wicket to push him for one to bring up his hundred. But the best was yet to come as he launched Dale Steyn, the most intimidating bowler in world cricket, straight back over his head into the sightscreen. It was a shot of utter dismissiveness that showed on his day, there is simply no bowler that can stop Pietersen in full cry.

Honourable Mentions - Hashim Amla, 311* v England (the concentration of a monk), Michael Clarke, 230 v South Africa (carnage in Adelaide), Virat Kohli, 183 v Pakistan (330 to win an ODI against your biggest rivals), Marlon Samuels, 78 v Sri Lanka (the best T20 innings ever?)

Bowling Performance of the Year

Peter Siddle - 33-15-65-4 v South Africa, 2nd Test

Peter Siddle is not an outstanding fast bowler. In the grand scheme of things, he is, but when it comes to international level, he does nothing special. He's not particularly quick, he doesn't swing the ball a lot, he doesn't seam the ball a lot and he bowls more bad balls than he should. He's in the Australian team through sheer graft, and in the 2nd test in Adelaide that graft was finally met with the skills mentioned above.

South Africa needed to bat over a day and a half to save the test. The Aussies were already a quick bowler down with James Pattinson injured in the 1st innings, with Siddle having sent down 30 overs already. In the 2nd innings, with Hilfenhaus and Lyon accurate but ineffective, and Pattinson unable to bowl, Siddle tore in time and time again, giving an outstanding performance of sheer will and no lack of quality. He bowled de Villiers with a snorter, and when the game seemed to have slipped away from Australia he picked up Steyn and Kleinveldt, jogging back to his mark between balls to save. He lost two wickets through reviews, and sank to his knees when Morne Morkel confirmed the draw for South Africa. Sometimes the best performances of a career go unrewarded.

Honourable Mentions - Tim Southee, 7-64 v India (another unrewarded effort), Saeed Ajmal, 7-55 v England (so devastating the England team psycologist was summoned to the UAE), Dale Steyn, 5-56 v England (the begining of the end for Strauss's England)

And Finally - Fielding of the Year

Because surely nothing can beat this from Steven Smith?

Well, Andre Russell can try....

As can Lydia Greenway...

Andre wants another go...

But Bevan Small comes out on top

5 Thoughts on the T20 So Far.....

A few thoughts on the World T20 so far....

1. It's been pretty dull

T20 is supposed to be the format of cricket that appeals to a wider audience. Even as a massive fan of the game, I appreciate that most people do not want to spend five days watching Jonathan Trott nurdle the ball into the leg side or Stuart Broad maintaining a consistent line and length outside off stump. T20 has worked because it's both quick and exciting, with the greatest rewards being for players who can improvise and make things happen.

Therefore, having a group stage which is to all intensive purposes completely meaningless isn't the best way to start the tournament. Afghanistan, Ireland, Bangladesh and Zimbabwe have all bitten the dust, and due to the vagueries of the seeding system, the matches between the bigger nations are completely pointless given they have no bearing on the rest of the tournament. Essentially, the first round of matches have been glorified warm-ups.

2. The attendances are low and this is good news for the IPL

The somewhat pointless nature of the matches has been reflected in the attendances, with in particular the daytime games being watched by no-one in particular. Only India seem to have attracted full houses for both games (unsurprisingly) and again in leads to the general feel of a tournament that hasn't really started. This is supposed to be the biggest T20 tournament in the world, but at the minute it is failing to live up to either the cricket nor excitement of the IPL. And that is only a good thing for the IPL, which will attract more fans as it becomes clearer that it is where the future of T20 (and possibly cricket as a whole) lies.

3. England need to go back to move forward against spin

Mixed in with a dissappointing start to the tournament was England's horrifying attempts at playing what at the end of the day are two fairly ordinary spinners in international terms against India. Most worrying was that England seemed to have no clear gameplan of how to combat what is a well-known problem for them, with batsman falling into pre-meditated shots or being completely bamboozled by variation. Andy Flower remains one the finest players of spin I have seen but seems unable to transmit his ideas to a team of players who do not face this quality of spin often enough or bat on pitches that give spinners this much opportunity.

The best I have seen any England team play spin was under Duncan Fletcher, using the forward press technique (third of a stride forward when the bowler enters his action). This technique seems to have been lost since Fletcher left the scene but seems to have been the most effective technique England have found against spin, particularly for Trescothick and Vaughan in their pomp and hopefully come the tour of India it may make a comeback.

4. T20 has saved Shane Watson's career and continues to work for him

Someone who has provided some entertainment in between the one-sided games and the rain is Shane Watson, for whom T20 cricket has provided a career that in previous generations may have fizzled out into nothing. Watson's talent has never been in doubt but an almost interminable set of injuries completely derailed his career, and he looked set to be added to the list of players who never fulfilled their potential through any fault of their own. However, injury prone players now have an avenue to extend their careers via T20 and Watson has used it perfectly.

In 2008, Watson had spent two years injured when all and sundry expected him to take Andrew Symonds place in the test side. He missed the Australian 2007/08 summer, normally meaning that he had little chance of playing county cricket in England and thus would have to wait until the next Australian summer to prove his fitness. Watson instead was able to play in the 2008 IPL, playing every game bar one (rested) for Rajasthan, finishing in the top 4 for both runs and wickets, and winning player of the tournament. Crucially for his career, he proved he could have success opening the batting. When Phil Hughes disintegrated in the 2009 Ashes, Watson was now fit, and success opening the batting, admittedly in another format, and got his Test place. Three years later he is the reigning Australian player of the year and man of the match in both of their first two games. Not bad for a player who twenty years ago would have most likely been forced into injury retirement.

5. A bad tournament for the men could mean a good one for the women

Coinciding with the start of the next group phase in the beginning of the sister women's T20 tournament, held in the same venues with both semi-finals and final at the same ground as the men's semis and final earlier in the day. The general dullness and malaise of the men's tournament plays into the women's tournaments hands, where T20 is creating a new buzz around women's cricket. England's women in particular are benefitting from this, with a raised profile in this tournament due to a number of factors, including the Olympic summer, the novelty factor but maybe above all the fact that until their final game before the tournament they were unbeaten in T20 cricket for 18 months.

England are expected to win, and rightly so. They bat inventively, bowl to their plans and their fielding puts the men's subcontinent teams to shame. The general consensus from those more in the know than me is that England have reached a level in the past 12 months that deserves recognition well beyond what they currently receive, and at the centre of this is Sarah Taylor, the keeper/batsman who has several pundits saying she is good enough to play county cricket. If the men's tournament continues to flounder and the women's tournament can entertain, then England's women can ultimately benefit, if they win the tournament as expected.

An Even Playing Field

The world T20 begins today, here's how I see the 12 teams fairing in what looks an incredibly even tournament:-

Going Home Early

Afghanistan

Very easy to lapse into clichés with Afghanistan, so may as well do it. They have done brilliantly to get this far, and in ten years they will most likely be a Test playing nation. As for now, their bowling might be quite effective in Sri Lankan conditions, but their batting is not up for dealing with the Indian pace bowlers let alone Steven Finn. Two brave defeats and then back to building for the future.

Ireland (Just)

Whereas the Afghans are genuine minnows, Ireland are very much knocking on the door. In Paul Stirling, they have an outstanding T20 batsman and are more than capable of beating either Australia or the West Indies. I don't think they will however, as their bowling will unlikely be able to cope with the power packed opposition. Watch out for Stirling though, particularly if they get set less than 150.

Zimbabwe

Somewhere between Ireland and Afghanistan, Zimbabwe would have been hoping for a slightly kinder draw. South Africa will efficiently see them off, and Sri Lanka should take advantage of home conditions to see them off. But, that aside, Zimbabwean cricket is back in an upswing and still have some dangerous players.

Bangladesh

Going home early will be Bangladesh, despite them getting the prime draw of New Zealand. They simply do not have the batting in any conditions to trouble the best sides, however well Shakib bowls. They're 50 over cricket is progressing well but it is at the expense of their T20 cricket and frankly if they were playing Ireland I know exactly who my money would be on.

Stay of Execution

New Zealand

Basically, it's McCullum and Taylor, and an awful lot of players who have a distinct journeyman feel to them. Vettori remains a good bowler but had a shocking IPL and gone are the days when their lack of ability could be hidden behind the brilliant leadership of Stephen Fleming. Will beat Bangladesh and quite possibly no-one else.

Sri Lanka

Essentially a better version of New Zealand. Dilshan, Sangakarra and Jayawardene form an exceptional trio at the top of the order, and expect big-hitting all-rounder Thisara Perera to announce himself at this tournament. With the bowling Malinga will be the huge threat but whereas in the IPL teams have to attack him, batsman will know there is rubbish just round the corner with Sri Lanka and he will lose some of his effectiveness. A solid showing from the hosts but no more.

Australia

This looks a very good side until you look at a) their recent results and b) their spinners. When you are choosing between Brad Hogg and Xavier Doherty for your spin king for a tournament in the sub-continent you have big problems and these are not ones that can be overcome by Warner and Watson, the most dangerous opening combination in the tournament. George Bailey seems the right choice as captain despite a likely modest personal contribution but he's going to have to be a bloody genius to prevent the Aussies from bleeding runs. Expect their games to be high-scoring.

England

It is impossible to look at England's side and not think "that's a good T20 side.... in 2014". There is plenty of explosive talent in the Hales/Buttler/Bairstow/Finn/Dernbach/Briggs group, but they lack the necessary experience to beat enough of the big teams consistently in order to win this tournament. With the batting, so much rides on Eoin Morgan, but Luke Wright is a real sleeper pick to be the top run scorer if England go far given his T20 form over the past 12 months. Most likely for England it's a learning experience before a real charge at the title in 2014.

Semi-Finalists

India

Whilst their bowling looks very, very soft, the IPL gives this side so much experience that they should get through both group stages unscathed. The batting is outstanding, and the Indian selectors seem to have got the right balance, particularly in surrounding Sehwag with young, talented players giving him full licence to attack without fear of the side being in big trouble if he gets out. A lot will rest on the man below, Virat Kohli, who despite giving the impression that he is a bit of a cock, is the outstanding white ball batsman in the world right now and seems to have got the confidence that he will get runs every time he walks out to bat. A run to the semis then beaten by a side that can contain their batting then take advantage of their bowling.

 

South Africa

Another side stacked with batting, loaded with fast bowling but no spinner worthy of the name. Robin Petersen bowled reasonably in England and Johan Botha has a good reputation as a captain but leadership skills and reasonable performances don’t cut it when a Gayle or Watson is stood at the other end and you need to take the pace of the ball. It’s been a wonderful summer for the Proteas, and you can be sure that AB De Villiers (below) will entertain and Steyn and Morkel will bowl quickly but it’s tough to see them winning a game on a turning track.

Runners-Up

West Indies

The first Test series I ever watched was England v West Indies in 1995, when I was told by my Dad about the superman that came from the Caribbean who could hit the ball miles, bowl at the speed of light and catch anything that moved. The West Indies of my youth have been quite different to those of his, with constant, unyielding disappointment that has shown little sign of ending, with that hopefully ending this tournament.

In Chris Gayle, they have the world’s best T20 batsman. In Sunil Narine, the world’s best T20 bowler. Keiron Pollard is one of the top five T20 players in the world. They have talent, the right captain in Darren Sammy and so many players who bring a lot to this team with both bat and ball. Badree would walk into most other sides and yet it seems unlikely that he will play at all. The main potential weakness is that they have too many hitters and not enough (or any) ballast but they will win matches and they will entertain. I want them to win it in all but in the crunch final, I don’t see their batting coming off against the last remaining side.

Winners

Pakistan

I make no bones about it, I don’t like Pakistani cricket. The whole PCB structure is notoriously corrupt; they should have been thrown out of Test cricket in 2006, then again in 2011, yet coming into this tournament I make them favourites over everyone else. A sort of anti-West Indies, they will play comparatively dull cricket, looking to keep sides below 140 with their array of quality spinners, led by Saeed Ajmal.

Despite having been around international cricket for a few years, I still haven’t seen a batsman who convincingly picks his doosra and his off-break is frankly outstanding as well. He’ll most likely be the main part of a four pronged spin attack, his off-breaks mixed with Mohammed Hafeez’s darts, Shahid Afridi’s bag of mainly leg-spinning tricks and quite possibly Raza Hasan’s left arm spin. Add in Umar Gul and Sohail Tanvir, and there is not a single weak link in that bowling attack. The batting line-up is weak, but has enough talent to chase the succession of simple chases they will be left with.

Winners – Pakistan

Top Run Scorer – Chris Gayle

Top Wicket Taker – Sunil Narine (Pakistan will share them around)

Player of the Tournament – Saeed Ajmal