An Even Playing Field

The world T20 begins today, here's how I see the 12 teams fairing in what looks an incredibly even tournament:-

Going Home Early

Afghanistan

Very easy to lapse into clichés with Afghanistan, so may as well do it. They have done brilliantly to get this far, and in ten years they will most likely be a Test playing nation. As for now, their bowling might be quite effective in Sri Lankan conditions, but their batting is not up for dealing with the Indian pace bowlers let alone Steven Finn. Two brave defeats and then back to building for the future.

Ireland (Just)

Whereas the Afghans are genuine minnows, Ireland are very much knocking on the door. In Paul Stirling, they have an outstanding T20 batsman and are more than capable of beating either Australia or the West Indies. I don't think they will however, as their bowling will unlikely be able to cope with the power packed opposition. Watch out for Stirling though, particularly if they get set less than 150.

Zimbabwe

Somewhere between Ireland and Afghanistan, Zimbabwe would have been hoping for a slightly kinder draw. South Africa will efficiently see them off, and Sri Lanka should take advantage of home conditions to see them off. But, that aside, Zimbabwean cricket is back in an upswing and still have some dangerous players.

Bangladesh

Going home early will be Bangladesh, despite them getting the prime draw of New Zealand. They simply do not have the batting in any conditions to trouble the best sides, however well Shakib bowls. They're 50 over cricket is progressing well but it is at the expense of their T20 cricket and frankly if they were playing Ireland I know exactly who my money would be on.

Stay of Execution

New Zealand

Basically, it's McCullum and Taylor, and an awful lot of players who have a distinct journeyman feel to them. Vettori remains a good bowler but had a shocking IPL and gone are the days when their lack of ability could be hidden behind the brilliant leadership of Stephen Fleming. Will beat Bangladesh and quite possibly no-one else.

Sri Lanka

Essentially a better version of New Zealand. Dilshan, Sangakarra and Jayawardene form an exceptional trio at the top of the order, and expect big-hitting all-rounder Thisara Perera to announce himself at this tournament. With the bowling Malinga will be the huge threat but whereas in the IPL teams have to attack him, batsman will know there is rubbish just round the corner with Sri Lanka and he will lose some of his effectiveness. A solid showing from the hosts but no more.

Australia

This looks a very good side until you look at a) their recent results and b) their spinners. When you are choosing between Brad Hogg and Xavier Doherty for your spin king for a tournament in the sub-continent you have big problems and these are not ones that can be overcome by Warner and Watson, the most dangerous opening combination in the tournament. George Bailey seems the right choice as captain despite a likely modest personal contribution but he's going to have to be a bloody genius to prevent the Aussies from bleeding runs. Expect their games to be high-scoring.

England

It is impossible to look at England's side and not think "that's a good T20 side.... in 2014". There is plenty of explosive talent in the Hales/Buttler/Bairstow/Finn/Dernbach/Briggs group, but they lack the necessary experience to beat enough of the big teams consistently in order to win this tournament. With the batting, so much rides on Eoin Morgan, but Luke Wright is a real sleeper pick to be the top run scorer if England go far given his T20 form over the past 12 months. Most likely for England it's a learning experience before a real charge at the title in 2014.

Semi-Finalists

India

Whilst their bowling looks very, very soft, the IPL gives this side so much experience that they should get through both group stages unscathed. The batting is outstanding, and the Indian selectors seem to have got the right balance, particularly in surrounding Sehwag with young, talented players giving him full licence to attack without fear of the side being in big trouble if he gets out. A lot will rest on the man below, Virat Kohli, who despite giving the impression that he is a bit of a cock, is the outstanding white ball batsman in the world right now and seems to have got the confidence that he will get runs every time he walks out to bat. A run to the semis then beaten by a side that can contain their batting then take advantage of their bowling.

 

South Africa

Another side stacked with batting, loaded with fast bowling but no spinner worthy of the name. Robin Petersen bowled reasonably in England and Johan Botha has a good reputation as a captain but leadership skills and reasonable performances don’t cut it when a Gayle or Watson is stood at the other end and you need to take the pace of the ball. It’s been a wonderful summer for the Proteas, and you can be sure that AB De Villiers (below) will entertain and Steyn and Morkel will bowl quickly but it’s tough to see them winning a game on a turning track.

Runners-Up

West Indies

The first Test series I ever watched was England v West Indies in 1995, when I was told by my Dad about the superman that came from the Caribbean who could hit the ball miles, bowl at the speed of light and catch anything that moved. The West Indies of my youth have been quite different to those of his, with constant, unyielding disappointment that has shown little sign of ending, with that hopefully ending this tournament.

In Chris Gayle, they have the world’s best T20 batsman. In Sunil Narine, the world’s best T20 bowler. Keiron Pollard is one of the top five T20 players in the world. They have talent, the right captain in Darren Sammy and so many players who bring a lot to this team with both bat and ball. Badree would walk into most other sides and yet it seems unlikely that he will play at all. The main potential weakness is that they have too many hitters and not enough (or any) ballast but they will win matches and they will entertain. I want them to win it in all but in the crunch final, I don’t see their batting coming off against the last remaining side.

Winners

Pakistan

I make no bones about it, I don’t like Pakistani cricket. The whole PCB structure is notoriously corrupt; they should have been thrown out of Test cricket in 2006, then again in 2011, yet coming into this tournament I make them favourites over everyone else. A sort of anti-West Indies, they will play comparatively dull cricket, looking to keep sides below 140 with their array of quality spinners, led by Saeed Ajmal.

Despite having been around international cricket for a few years, I still haven’t seen a batsman who convincingly picks his doosra and his off-break is frankly outstanding as well. He’ll most likely be the main part of a four pronged spin attack, his off-breaks mixed with Mohammed Hafeez’s darts, Shahid Afridi’s bag of mainly leg-spinning tricks and quite possibly Raza Hasan’s left arm spin. Add in Umar Gul and Sohail Tanvir, and there is not a single weak link in that bowling attack. The batting line-up is weak, but has enough talent to chase the succession of simple chases they will be left with.

Winners – Pakistan

Top Run Scorer – Chris Gayle

Top Wicket Taker – Sunil Narine (Pakistan will share them around)

Player of the Tournament – Saeed Ajmal