Lions Squad Post Six Nations

Post Six Nations, and with the Lions tour coming up, here’s my 37 man squad.

Props - Dan Cole, Alex Corbisiero, Cian Healy, Gethin Jenkins, Adam Jones, Mike Ross

The main question with the props is how many the Lions will take. If they decide to take five, then Paul James will really fancy his chances. I’m backing the Lions to take six, in which case at Loosehead, Healy and Jenkins are dead certainties. With two good players already in that position, Alex Corbisiero, if he can get some game time before the end of the season, is worth taking. At Tighthead, whatever passionate Welshmen say, Dan Cole is the current starter with Adam Jones backing him up. I’m not massively enthused about Mike Ross, but it’s him or part-timer Euan Murray and I’d rather have Ross in the midweek team.

Hookers - Rory Best, Dylan Hartley, Richard Hibbard

The main job for the hooker in a side which has so many back row options should be to secure decent lineout ball, which is why Best and Hartley are there. The third choice hooker could frankly be anyone, I’ve plumped for Hibbard on the basis that the coach is the Welsh coach and Matthew Rees is almost certainly going to be broken again.

Locks - Joe Launchbery, Alun Wyn Jones, Geoff Parling, Donnacha Ryan

Parling was the best lock in the championship by a mile, and will go. AWJ got a lot of press for a man who produced two good games, but he’s also secure in selection. Ryan has a petulant streak in his game which needs removing, but he’s also got the necessary talent to make the squad. The fourth lock hopefully the Lions will take the punt on Launchbery, leaving Mike McCarthy wondering how he’s at home and Hibbard isn’t.

Back Row - Kelly Brown, Toby Faletau, Jamie Heaslip, Ryan Jones, Chris Robshaw, Justin Tipuric, Sam Warburton, Tom Wood

The main area of contention, with a list of around 15 players who can make a case for going, yet a large number of those will not. To start with, given the strength in depth, I’m ignoring Steven Ferris and Ross Rennie due to their injury concerns, and Dan Lydiate due to both his injury concerns and the fact he is massively overrated, a problem which also rules out Tom Croft.

The fact is, Tipuric, Warburton, Robshaw and Wood should and will all go. So would Ben Morgan had he not got injured. Number eight is somewhat of a problem area not due to talent but form, with Faletau not exactly setting the world alight and Jamie Heaslip struggling with the weight of captaining a rapidly declining team. Jonnie Beattie is not real competition and Morgan’s injury however sends them on the tour. The two remaining spots go to two old timers, Kelly Brown and Ryan Jones. Both are unflashy players who do the right things, Brown helped by coming through a Saracens environment that demands the best from them. Jones does seem like a bit of a left field selection but he can also play in the second row. Sean O’Brien doesn’t go on the basis that if you doubled his IQ he’d still be an idiot and Chris Henry got injured at a bad time.

Scrum-Halfs - Conor Murray, Mike Phillips, Ben Youngs

Phillips and Youngs should both be fairly confident of selection, although I have a nasty feeling Gatland and Howley might fancy a bit of Danny Care. Murray, Laidlaw and Care are all at roughly the same level, but the Welsh philosophy seems to be with players of equal ability pick the biggest one and that’s why Murray will tour.

Fly-Halfs - Owen Farrell, James Hook, Jonny Sexton

Ireland were pretty good when Jonny Sexton played, and awful when he didn’t. Farrell will prove to be a solid back up but lacks the running game to challenge Sexton, unless Sexton’s injury rules him out of the tour. Due to the limits of squad size, the third fly-half will be James Hook. He’s playing well in France and can cover a multitude of positions, which given I’ve only got two full-backs I need.

Centres - Jonathan Davies, Luke Marshall, Brian O’Driscoll, Jamie Roberts

I typed Jamie Roberts name, thought for some time, typed Brian O’Driscoll’s name, and then thought for a hell of a long time. This is a position of surprising weakness, due to the fact that so many of the centres playing for the home nations are highly one dimentional. I think Jonathan Davies had a quietly awful tournament for Wales, where he did nothing particularly well and was covered by his inside partner, but he was excellent last year so he has cash in the bank. The final centre is a nightmare. Brad Barritt can tackle and organise, but offers nothing in attack. Manu Tuilagi divides opinion massively but even as a big fan I can admit he is a black hole in terms of passing the ball. Luke Marshall has had a good season for Ulster, has a reasonable eye for a break and was unlucky to get knocked unconscious twice. Max Scott looks a decent player but the tour has come maybe 12 months too early.

Wingers - Alex Cuthbert, Craig Gilroy, Sean Maitland, George North

Tommy Bowe’s injury casts a big shadow here, because he was an absolutely certain starter and the only winger with previous Lions experience. North would have to lose form quite spectacularly to not start, but after that it’s a fairly open race. Cuthbert is a deadly finisher but he creates tries at both ends of the field, and whoever starts right wing has to deal with Digby Ioane. That said, Cuthbert is favourite to start ahead of the exciting Gilroy, and the solid Maitland. Chris Ashton will not go, due to both form and personality and Tim Visser is another player whose one-dimensional game will count against him.

Full-backs - Leigh Halfpenny, Stuart Hogg

This could be a closer battle for the shirt than people think, and would be closer if Halfpenny wasn’t such a fantastic goal kicker. Halfpenny is defensively superb but people tend to overlook his weakness is joining the line and broken field running. That is not a problem for Stuart Hogg, who not only is a good player but made sure he had good games when people were watching and a bad one when no-one cared (he was rubbish in Paris). Halfpenny will start the first Test but if Cuthbert struggles early on the tour don’t be surprised if the Lions try Halfpenny on the wing with Hogg at full-back.

Team for 1^st Test and Captain

Cian Healy, Dylan Hartley, Dan Cole, Alun Wyn Jones, Geoff Parling, Sam Warburton, Justin Tipuric, Toby Faletau, Mike Phillips, Jonny Sexton, George North, Jamie Roberts, Brian O’Driscoll (c), Alex Cuthbert, Leigh Halfpenny

Some of these selections will be obvious from the comments above, but I’ll explain some. At hooker, I think if Gatland and Hartley can get over their previous bad blood, they will find that Gatland is the perfect coach for Hartley and that will push him ahead of Best. In the back-row, Robshaw and Wood will be extremely unfortunate to miss out but Warburton and Tipuric worked so spectacularly well for Wales against England that it would appear to be the best combination at this point in time, particularly as Wood struggled with the technical aspects of number eight throughout the tournament (Wood struck me as an outstanding blindside trying to play eight throughout the tournament)

The backs are fairly clean cut, but the selection of O’Driscoll as captain is based on the view that Gatland will want to avoid picking a polairising choice as captain. If he chooses Warburton or Robshaw, that is going to annoy one nation of players either way, and given that supposedly some of the Englishmen are already a bit uncertain about Gatland he doesn’t want to get off on the wrong foot. O’Driscoll has been on good tours and bad tours, and will understand the importance of all nations pulling together.

Lions 2009

Loosehead Prop

This has looked like a two horse race for a long time before the Autumn Internationals. With respect to Marcus Horan and Alan Jacobsen, both players who are comfortably holding on to their country’s shirt, this is between Gethin Jenkins and Andrew Sheridan. Sheridan was probably shading the race before England’s disaster and his own injury, and Jenkins stepped up for Wales. Jenkins is the front runner now but nothing is settled between the two, and with both having injury problems, with the likelihood of five props being taken, Horan and Jacobsen should keep up the pressure for a tour spot.

Hooker

This looks like a tough position to predict, and a weakness for the Lions. Ireland still seem to be playing silly buggers with their hookers, with Best, Flannery and Jackman all competing to be the hooker in green at the 6N. Lee Mears seems to have seen off Dylan Hartley for the moment, but he hardly set the world alight in the autumn, and questions will remain about how he would handle the doubtless physical South African pack. Matthew Rees seemed to be unable to hit a barn door with his throwing against Australia, which doesn’t breed confidence.

This leads to the man who now may well be the Lions hooker come 2009. Ross Ford is not a great player, but he is improving quickly, and extra sessions with Shaun Fitzpatrick can only help his cause. He hits his jumpers and makes a nuisance of himself around the field, and he may be the best of an average bunch. Ford and Mears can expect to go on tour, with the third hooker being a bit of a toss-up at the moment. I’ll stick with Best as he is most likely to start for Ireland.

Tighthead Prop

With England’s insistence on keeping Matt Stevens on the bench behind the dilapidated Phil Vickery, this spot is somewhat up for grabs. Euan Murray seems to be the man pushing forward, quite literally with his strong scrummaging, which is a plus going to the land of the scrummage. Murray can expect to tour at the moment and only needs an average 6N to book his ticket.
Stevens, on the other hand, needs to get into the England side. Adam Jones is looking like a strong candidate to go on tour, and the fifth prop they take is likely to see someone along the lines of John Hayes or Phil Vickery picked ahead of him on the basis that they will be a good member of the tour party. McGeechan knows the importance of players gelling, and a popular guy like Hayes would help this process, particularly with the mid-week side. Stevens versatility is at the moment the only thing keeping him ahead at the moment, but if he spends the 6N on the bench, expect John Hayes to go to South Africa.

Second Row

If Paul O’Connell can walk in May he will tour, and if he can run in July he’ll play all Three Tests. Donnacha O’Callaghan can feel pretty sure of joining him on the tour, as can Alun Wyn-Jones. Both players would need a serious drop in form not to be on the tour. Assuming that only four locks go with extra cover being needed in the specialist positions, it looks to be a race between a collection of average locks from England and Nathan Hines. At the moment it’s a bit of a lottery but you’d have to go with Steve Borthwick by default due to experience, but it would be no surprise if he weren’t the one chosen.

Openside

There is a wealth of talent at this position, and each gives a different flavour, from the experience of Martyn Williams and David Wallace to the up and coming talent of Tom Rees and John Barclay. Michael Lipman makes for an interesting fifth but Rees seems to be Martin Johnson’s choice and that will keep him ahead in the Lions pecking order. Williams will certainly tour, and probably start the first Test, but he is not that far ahead of Wallace and Rees. Rees really needs to kick on and nail down the England shirt, and David Wallace needs to play well every game rather than just 2 in every 3. I’d give the momentary edge to Wallace, due to the amount of high pressure Heineken Cup rugby he has played, but a good 6N for Rees will see him tour.

Blindside and No. 8

The modern view is that these positions are interchangeable, and it seems to strike true with a number of players being able to play both positions. Ryan Jones is another Welshman who can keep his summer free ready for Lions duty, but after that it all gets very sticky. If Andy Powell plays the 6N like he did this autumn he will definitely tour, and deserve to. That just leaves the small matter of Ali Hogg, Jason White, Alisdair Strockosch, Simon Taylor, Alan Quinlan, Jamie Heaslip, Stephen Ferris, James Haskell, Tom Croft, Nick Easter, Jordan Crane, Lewis Moody, Dafydd Jones and Jonathan Thomas with a chance of making the tour.

Haskell you would expect to do enough to go, if he stops this frustrating petulant streak in his game. If we assume he nails his spot, expect Jason White to tour. Former Scotland captain, popular with the Scots players and popular with Sale. That makes him an ideal candidate for mid-week captain.

Scrum-Half

Mike Blair is Scotland captain for a reason – he is their best player and a good leader. Picking a Lions side now would see him amongst the first five names on the team sheet. After that, and assuming that three specialist scrum halves are taken, it gets close. Danny Care shows moments of brilliance followed by moments of madness, but if he irons those out with more international rugby he will tour as an explosive bench option. Mike Phillips would have toured a year ago, but injury has wrecked his season and will start the 6N as Wales third choice. Dwayne Peel is not the player he once was, and thus somewhat weirdly Gareth Cooper seems to be the lead Wales option. Ireland’s Thomas O’Leary and Peter Stringer have their limitations, and Eion Reddan seems to be out of favour with everyone. It is likely that the best Welsh number nine of the 6N will be the third scrum-half, and I’ll predict based on the adage that form is temporary and class is permanent. Dwayne Peel will tour.

Fly-Half

This autumn was the chance for the new fly halves of the Northern Hemisphere to bury the ghost of Wilkinson for once and forever, to show that they too could win games under pressure against the big boys. And they blew it. His limitations have been exposed, particularly his passing, but everyone is world knows it. With ten minutes to go and the scores tied, there is no one you’d want at ten rather than Jonny Wilkinson. If he’s fit, he goes to South Africa. He won’t necessary be in the side, but he scares the Southern Hemisphere sides, and he would lift the squad.

After that, expect two races for two more positions. One of the experienced heads, Steven Jones and Ronan O’Gara, and one from the youngsters: - James Hook, Danny Cipriani and Toby Flood. Phil Godman and Dan Parks can book their holidays now. Jones looks a long way ahead of O’Gara at the moment, starting ahead of Hook and in a winning side. Hook will do well with the Ospreys but needs to ultimately displace Jones to get a spot on the tour, but he is versatile. Who knows what Cipriani will have done over the next eight months, but decent form will see him ahead of a benched Hook.

Centres

Brian O’Driscoll is a great player, solid in defence and dangerous in attack. He won’t get the captaincy he wishes for, but will tour and will almost certainly start. Gavin Henson is a preening tosser, but a 6N of the rugby he is capable of will see him into the Lions side. The bench players are far harder to pick out of a crowd. Nick de Luca is superb for Edinburgh and terrible for Scotland. Riki Flutey and Jamie Noon struggle for England, Luke Fitzgerald struggles for Ireland and Shane Horgan’s career seems to have finished. The door is open for Tom Shanklin, and he should take the opportunity. The fourth centre, expect someone capable, but more so someone who will keep the peace and tour well. Mike Tindall’s England career looks finished, but a Lions tour spot is not beyond him.

Wingers

For anyone not watching rugby over the past twelve months, the flash looking, gobby looking midget on the Wales left wing has got seriously good. There would be a riot in Wales if Shane Williams didn’t start the first test, and whilst he’s not guaranteed a spot in the side, he would have to be biblically bad to not make the tour. Paul Sackey looked a safe bet before the autumn, but offered little. Mark Jones is functional, but won’t scare Bryan Habana into sleepless nights. David Strettle seems to be made out of polystyrene. Ugo Monye may never play for England again.

Of the Lamont brothers, Shaun is a better player and will compete hard for a spot, but will probably fall short. Tommy Bowe and Rob Kearney however, both have a strong chance of going. Given that Bowe can play centre as well, I would expect him to tour. If Strettle happens to be fit at the time of the tour, he should go as an amazingly exciting runner – for Paul Sackey, form is everything. Recapture the form of last year, and he’ll be in South Africa. Assuming he does, and that Bowe goes on the basis of his versatility, it leaves one spot after Williams, Strettle, Sackey and Bowe. Jones and Kearney will battle it out, and expect the young Irishman to claim a spot on the basis of a strong 6N and a strong Heineken Cup.

Full-Back

Lee Byrne and someone else – he’s playing well enough to have made it the case. Delon Armitage has grabbed his opportunity with both hands, but has only played 4 tests in a bad side and needs some more experience. Girvan Dempsey has that experience, but moves slower than an oil tanker captured by Somali pirates, and won’t tour. Geordan Murphy can’t seem to work out tackling. Chris Paterson had a chance to firmly capture the second slot, but broke his face. Between Paterson and Armitage, but Paterson’s goal kicking will see him be the fifteen for the mid-week side.

Captain

Ryan Jones won a Grand Slam. Paul O’Connell won the Heineken Cup. Tana Umaga and Kevin Meelamu robbed Brian O’Driscoll of the Lions captaincy. None of them should captain the Lions. Jones is short of the form at the moment, O’Connell struggles in big games and his temper, and O’Driscoll’s moment has passed. It’s less likely than the Lions captain being John Terry, but the tough, gutsy and intelligent play of Mike Blair should see him lead the Lions.

Final Squad

Gethin Jenkins, Andrew Sheridan, Euan Murray, Adam Jones, John Hayes, Ross Ford, Lee Mears, Rory Best, Paul O’Connell, Donnacha O’Callaghan, Alun Wyn-Jones, Steve Borthwick, Martyn Williams, David Wallace, Ryan Jones, Andy Powell, James Haskell, Jason White, Mike Blair ©, Danny Care, Dwayne Peel, Stephen Jones, Jonny Wilkinson, Danny Cipriani, Gavin Henson, Brian O’Driscoll, Tom Shanklin, Mike Tindall, Shane Williams, David Strettle, Paul Sackey, Tommy Bowe, Rob Kearney, Lee Byrne, Chris Paterson.