Ashes Preview

The Ashes kicks off tomorrow, here’s a guide to how the teams are shaping up:-

Australia

Batting

Michael Clarke (c), Brad Haddin (vc, wk), David Warner, Ed Cowan, Phillip Hughes, Shane Watson, Usman Khawaja, Chris Rogers, Steve Smith and Matthew Wade (wk)

Darren Lehmann’s first major selection as coach was to return Shane Watson to his opening role, and confirm that he would open with Watson and Chris Rogers, a 35 year-old with only one cap but significant experience of English conditions. Moving Watson up to open is a reasonable move, as with the obvious exception of Michael Clarke, Watson is the best batter they have, and opening is his best position. Rogers is a smart selection, known as a decent player but also an intelligent one, but this is not a long term move. This highlights Australia’s biggest problem, which is their lack of batting depth, and the inability of every player except Clarke to score heavily.

David Warner’s suspension means it is highly unlikely he will play in either of the first two Tests, unless they take a flyer on him at six. This ensures Ed Cowan’s selection at three, but he must start converting starts on Warner will come back in. With Steve Smith essentially arriving as cover for Clarke’s back injury, it seems both Hughes and Khawaja will play. Hughes has suffered twice at the hands of England, firstly against the short ball and then his lack of footwork outside off-stump, whilst Khawaja remains thoroughly unconvincing. Hughes however is a confidence player, and should improve under Lehmann.

The final selection sees Brad Haddin return ahead of Matthew Wade as the wicketkeeper. Wade is talented but he has struggled badly keeping to Nathan Lyon, and Haddin has had his biggest successes against England. Given the strong praise for his performance as captain on the A tour, the selection of Haddin as vice captain comes across as a shrewd move.

Bowling

James Faulkner, Ryan Harris, Peter Siddle, James Pattinson, Mitchell Starc, Nathan Lyon and Jackson Bird.

From a weak batting line-up to an extremely strong pace battery, this is Australia’s best chance of winning the series. Starc and Pattinson are hugely promising young bowlers, with Starc’s left arm pace a particular asset with England’s two most consistent run scorers, Cook and Trott, both having poor records against left arm pace. Pattinson is quick, and has the talent, but seems to almost be continuously injured. The main worry is the form of Peter Siddle, who struggled in the warm up games, having deservedly reached the heights of number five in the world. Siddle would be the wicket to wicket bowler in the likely event of both Starc and Pattinson playing, which is most likely their best attack in normal conditions.

However, Trent Bridge is not normal for the Australians. Siddle’s poor form opens the door for both Jackson Bird and Ryan Harris. Bird is a very traditional swing bowler, with an impressive understanding of length and in normal English conditions he would be the ideal replacement if Siddle’s form is considered a barrier to him playing. But Trent Bridge has been very dry recently, making the outfield hard, ideal for reverse swing bowling, and ideal for Harris. When fit, Harris is the best reverse swing bowler in the world, but he is so rarely fit, suffering from a knee condition from which he cannot heal, only rest. Harris was probably picked to only play two Tests, with the Oval a near certainty to due to large square, aiding reverse swing. However, conditions seem to have come into his favour, and whilst it would be a big punt from Australia, it could pay off in spectacular fashion.

Of the remaining bowlers, James Faulkner is here if Starc gets injured, or if England’s batters are truly awful against him. That leaves Nathan Lyon, and I don’t care what the Australian media say, this guy can bowl. He’s not a great bowler, he’s not destined for sporting immortality, but he is a serviceable Test bowler. His main job in this series will be to keep things tight, a role he is well suited to. Australia’s problems will arise if he needs to attack, because that is the weakness in his bowling, a role maybe better suited to Fawad Ahmed, if Australia add him to the squad. England need to treat Lyon with respect, and he is not as poor as the spinners Australia had in the last series.

Captain

Michael Clarke is a captain on the field who I like a lot. He’s clearly highly involved with the game, he’s clearly not only able to execute plans but come up with his own, and he comes across as the kind of captain who can make something happen. His weaknesses are twofold; his off-field captaincy, and his relationship with Shane Watson.

Off-field, Clarke has been far too happy to let the coach take a bigger role than he should. The captain should be setting the standard, should be involved when a player steps out of line. During the Champions Trophy, Clarke was conspicuous by his absence, where it was left to Micky Arthur and replacement captain George Bailey to step into. The constant sniping between Clarke and Watson, in main over the power granted to Arthur, started to split the dressing room. It created a vacuum of leadership, and whilst the walkabout incident can only be blamed on Warner himself, it’s this kind of lack of leadership that leads to these situations. It’s time for Michael Clarke to realise being captain is more than just telling people what to do on the field.

Coach

Darren Lehmann is a highly regarded player, and has very quickly established himself as an exciting young coach, his teams characterised by players seemingly playing at the peak of their confidence. This will be huge if he can inspire his team, and get the likes of Watson, Warner, Hughes and Harris playing their best cricket. He’s also helped that the expectations for this series in Australia are very low, as they expect their ill disciplined mob to get thumped. The problem with the batting is well appreciated in Australia, so Lehmann will get a pass on that until the winter. His problem is likely to be his relationship with Clarke – Clarke was a huge fan of Arthur’s, and may take time to gel with Lehmann, who is likely to improve the form of and thus increase the influence of several of the players nipping at Clarke. If Australia were to lose both series, it would not be a huge surprise to see Clarke jump ship.

England

Batting

Alistair Cook (c), Joe Root, Jonathan Trott, Kevin Pietersen, Ian Bell, Jonny Bairstow and Matt Prior (wk). Potential others include Nick Compton, James Taylor and Ravi Bopara.

The big call was made two weeks ago, when the squad for the Essex game was announced, where Nick Compton was dropped for Joe Root to move up the order. As a long term move, it was the right call, but right before an Ashes series England have heaped the pressure on Root. Fortunately, his temperament has looked supreme in his career so far, and he appears ready for the challenge. Compton has not so much been dropped for low scores as in the manner in which he made them, seeming completely trapped by fear of failure. Runs for Somerset, even against the Australians, have not proved enough.

With the settled players, we all know what Cook and Trott will aim to do. Blunt the young quicks, and lay a platform for Pietersen to take the game away. Both Cook and Trott, in particular Cook, have poor records against left arm quicks and it was acknowledged as much when England asked for both Tymal Mills and Reece Topley to play in the Essex match. Mills played, and got both of them in the first innings. Pietersen is the stand out player in the England side, as whilst the others are good players and more consistent, Pietersen’s runs hurt sides, coming at a rate and an air of dominance that feel like a punch to the gut. Bell is in a little bit of a “what have you done for me lately” mode, but his record, particularly at five and six, is strong and if the right platform is laid he could have a great series.

Jonny Bairstow is the man under pressure. Yet to fully convince as a Test batsman, his battle with Lyon will be fascinating as Bairstow’s poor play of spin is likely to be used as an opportunity to get Lyon into the series by Australia. James Taylor has been in superb form for Nottinghamshire this season, and if Bairstow suffers poor form, England should not hesitate in bringing him in. Another player who could benefit from a poor Bairstow run is perennial Flower favourite Ravi Bopara, who brings the added bonus of his bowling. As for Prior, despite a poor series against New Zealand, he is the best Test wicketkeeper batsman in the world, and a huge advantage for us over Haddin. The big question is what would happen if Prior got injured, with England given the choice of handing the gloves to Bairstow, or picking most likely Steven Davies out of the county scene.

Bowling

James Anderson, Stuart Broad, Steven Finn, Tim Bresnan, Graham Onions and Graeme Swann. Potential others include Boyd Rankin, Chris Tremlett, Monty Panesar and James Tredwell.

In India, Jimmy Anderson finished his ascent to the height of his ability, bowling with superb discipline in the most unhelpful conditions he could have dreamt of. Whilst slightly disappointing in New Zealand, he has started the summer in superb form and the highest praise I can offer him is that he is certainly the second best fast bowler in the world after the near untouchable Dale Steyn. His ability to swing the ball against an Australian side weak on batting and experience in England will likely be the difference between the sides. Backing him up is the mercurial Stuart Broad, who needs to find the consistency of the tour of the UAE, where he suggested he was becoming the bowler his talent merits.

The big call for England is their third seamer, with the choice between Steven Finn and Tim Bresnan. As mentioned above, the Trent Bridge outfield and pitch is predicted to be hard, which would encourage England to pick Bresnan ahead of Finn. There are question marks over both players, with Finn struggling with his new run-up, and Bresnan yet to find decent form since his elbow first gave him pain during the Pakistan series. I would back Finn as the bowler of greater talent and pick him, but I think England will look to continue their success with reverse swing of recent months and include Bresnan. Behind these four seamers, England are perhaps short of a Test match ready bowler, with Graham Onions continuing to take wickets for Durham but England’s current management appear unconvinced by his credentials, and this England management group have a fantastic record at judging fast bowling talent.

The latest fast bowler they have brought through is Boyd Rankin, the tall Irishman who extracts a significant amount of lift, and arrives with the added bonus of international experience with his home nation. Selected in the squad for the Essex game, the feeling was this was more a chance to look at him before possibly taking him to Australia this winter, but it shows he is in the selector’s thoughts. Someone else surely in the selector’s thoughts will be Chris Tremlett, who bowled superbly in Australia in 2010/11, before a back injury threatened to end his career. He’s now back and bowling well for Surrey, and whilst England will want assurances that he is not going to break down mid match, his past performances will encourage an early recall, particularly if neither Finn nor Bresnan bowls with gusto.

Onto the spin options, where Graeme Swann remains an outstanding Test match bowler, and with the advent of T20 cricket, maybe the last great orthodox off-spinner. Swann is a potential match winner for England, and whilst I have praised Lyon above, Lyon is not in the same league here. The worry for England remains Swann’s elbow, which if it gives way leaves England the rather unappetising prospect of choosing between a completely out of form Monty Panesar and an out of form James Tredwell. Tredwell would probably get the nod due to the number of left handers the Aussies have, but Swann staying fit and bowling well is another crucial factor for England.

Captain

For everything I said about Michael Clarke, the reverse is true of Alistair Cook. Cook has been correctly praised for the discipline and example he sets off the field of play, with both his attention to detail and his match preparation exemplary. Cook also need not worry too much about dressing room harmony, as he has a superb second in command in Matt Prior.

Where Cook struggles is his on field captaincy. Whereas Clarke is a bundle of energy and ideas, Cook seems downtrodden and lethargic. It was particularly telling in New Zealand where Prior read the riot act before NZ’s second innings in the final Test, whilst Cook remained mute. There are going to be times when England struggle this series, and Cook needs to better project himself to his teammates in those moments than he has done so far as England captain.

Coach

Andy Flower is a perfectionist, who will leave no stone unturned in terms of plans for the Australians, despite the fact that very few of them have played against England before. Graham Gooch, a disappointing head coach at Essex, remains an excellent batting coach and has seemed to be able to build into the mindset of the England batters to get large scores, although he must have been delighted to see his arrival coincide with that of Jonathan Trott, with Gooch unable to find a more willing discipline for his approach to batting.

The question England have over their coaching staff is bowling coach David Saker. Saker has been very good for England, bringing the best out of Anderson and spotting good talent. However, playing around with Finn’s run-up has proved costly, and his selections over the last six months have not been quite as good as when he started. He has a young family, but more pertinently, England have one of the highest rated bowling coaches in the world in Graeme Welch sitting at Warwickshire. Welch is universally praised as the next big thing in bowling coaching, and has already worked with Flower and Gooch at Essex. Saker will probably step aside after the series to seek a county job whilst Welch steps up to international level.

Prediction

England should, and will win this series. Australia have the potential to hurt England with their bowling line-up, but their batting will not be good enough to deal with the trio of Anderson, Broad and Swann. I see England winning 3-1, with Anderson and Starc taking player of the series for their respective sides. In terms of runs, I see Trott and Watson being the heaviest scorers for their teams.